Why China kindergartens are shutting down amid a birth rate collapse

Why China kindergartens are shutting down amid a birth rate collapse

China is experiencing a stunning revolution of its early childhood education system, spurred by an abrupt and sustained decline in birth rates. Kindergarten enrolment declined by nearly a quarter over the past four years, pushing tens of thousands of preschools across the country out of operation. It's a harrowing canary-in-the-coal-mine indicator of the country's underlying demographic troubles, the Financial Times reported.

A dramatic decline in preschool enrolment
From 2020 to 2024, kindergarten enrolment fell by a record high of 48 million kids to just 36 million, according to China's Ministry of Education. That is 12 million less kids in four years. During the same years, the number of kindergartens fell by more than 41,000, and the number now stands at about 253,000. That trend will persist since China is also dealing with the long-term effects of having a shrinking population.

The legacy of China's one-child policy
Population change is due to decades of population control, particularly the one-child policy that spanned until 2016. The trend cannot be undone by the government's efforts to provide incentives for more births. Birth rates continued to decline. In 2023, there were a record low number of births, and although 9.3 million births were achieved in 2024, that still represents virtually a 50% decline from the 17.9 million births of 2017. Deaths continue to exceed births, which suggests long-term population decline.

Pre-schools repurposed as ageing care
Dropping demand for pre-schooling is causing some entrepreneurs to change direction. In Zhejiang province, a kindergarten owner converted her previously successful 270-student pre-school into a 42-bed nursing home in 2023. Her other kindergartens, which had enrolled over 1,000 children, are now hosting only 150. She's added infant day care for children as young as 10 months old in an effort to keep her doors open. But even this transition is dubious in an elderly community with fewer young couples.

Demographic crisis opportunities for transformation
The crisis is a chance to transform China's education system, according to experts. With fewer youngsters, funds can be directed towards raising the quality of education at every level. This includes investing in better daycare and university infrastructure. Changes to the gaokao, China's notoriously intense university entrance exam, are also being demanded, to better suit the requirements of a reduced, aged, and hopefully better-educated population.

What happens to empty classrooms and schools?
Whereas changing the educational system could be an option, the question is what to do with China's huge infrastructure of underutilized classrooms and school buildings. Some of the facilities just sit vacant, whereas others are being converted into other uses. But these transitions aren't easy. For instance, the previously occupied nursing homes have trouble finding elderly patients to fill their beds, many of whom prefer to live with family members rather than in institutions—especially when they're still healthy.

A transforming society
While China is weathering this demographic tipping point, parents, educators, and policy makers are all being forced to rethink conventional wisdom. Those thin kindergarten classes are not just a indication of a declining birth rate—they are an indication of more general change in society. How China comes through this transition, from small classroom sizes to growing elder care demands, will shape its fate for decades to come.