Trump’s second-term foreign policy: Wins, whiplash, and what comes next

Trump’s foreign policy rollercoaster ride

Nine months into his second term, President Donald Trump’s foreign policy looks like a cocktail of gut instinct, grievance, and showmanship — equal parts erratic and effective. He has brokered cease-fires, pressured allies to pay up for defence, and clawed back influence in regions where Washington had been drifting. But the same impulsive style that fuels breakthroughs often creates new crises within days, the New York Times reported.

Wins that even critics acknowledge

For now, Trump’s most visible success is the fragile cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which led to the release of 20 hostages. Even sceptics admit it required skilful handling of a reluctant Israeli government. In Europe, Trump’s relentless threats have pushed NATO allies to boost military spending faster than in decades — a long-standing U.S. demand few previous presidents achieved. And after years of stalemate, his personal diplomacy has opened channels with Venezuela and parts of the Middle East.

Tariffs, tantrums, and tactical reversals

Yet for every diplomatic win, there’s a self-inflicted trade war. A feud over a Canadian TV ad quoting Ronald Reagan led Trump to cancel trade talks and slap new tariffs on Canadian goods — a move economists say could cost Americans billions. With China, his tone swings from fury to friendliness. After Beijing restricted exports of rare earth minerals vital for U.S. tech, Trump thundered about “massive retaliation,” then softened en route to Asia, hinting at a deal with Xi Jinping.

Venezuela and the shadow wars

Trump’s military brinkmanship is back, too. He’s sent an aircraft carrier to the Caribbean, ordered strikes on Venezuelan boats he claimed were smuggling drugs, and vowed to “end Maduro’s regime.” U.S. officials privately admit the real aim is to push regime change, not anti-trafficking. Legal experts have questioned whether the killings — 43 civilians so far — have any legal basis. The Pentagon remains publicly vague on the operation’s goals.

Ukraine: the biggest U-turns of all

No file shows Trump’s unpredictability better than Ukraine. In one week, he floated sending Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv, then backed off after a call from Vladimir Putin. He alternates between praising Russia’s strength and promising Ukraine full support. In July, he insisted only a “peace agreement” could end the war; by September, he was back to promoting a cease-fire. European diplomats now routinely fly to Washington just to clarify U.S. positions that can flip overnight.

The ego factor in diplomacy

To his supporters, Trump’s volatility is strategy — a way to keep adversaries guessing. To most foreign leaders, it feels like governing by impulse. “You walk into the Oval Office like there’s dynamite under the couch,” one ambassador quipped. His desire to be seen as the man who “ends wars” — not necessarily wins them — drives much of his behaviour. That hunger for personal credit, former officials say, often outweighs policy consistency.

From unpredictability to a legacy

As Trump begins his Asia tour, meeting Japan’s new prime minister and Xi Jinping, the question looms: can he turn instinct into a coherent strategy? His defenders point to results — hostages freed, allies spending more, tariffs forcing renegotiations. Critics counter that the gains are fragile and come at the cost of trust, alliances, and stability.
Trump, for his part, doesn’t seem interested in traditional diplomacy or legacy. “I get things done,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One. “That’s what people want.”

Whether that “done” leads to durable peace or just more chaos — the world, once again, is watching.