Barely a week ago, United States President Donald Trump had raised global hopes for a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine war. Following a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump declared that the two leaders would soon meet in Budapest “within two weeks or so.” The announcement was seen as a major step toward reviving peace talks in a war that has dragged on for four years.
By Tuesday, however, the optimism had vanished. The White House confirmed that the planned summit had been halted, saying there were “no plans for President Trump to meet with President Putin in the immediate future.” Trump told reporters that he wanted to avoid a “wasted meeting” with Putin. “I don’t want to have a waste of time, so I’ll see what happens,” he said.
The abrupt reversal reflected not just a breakdown in diplomatic momentum but also the deep, persistent gap between Washington and Moscow’s expectations. It revealed how the two sides remain entrenched in fundamentally opposing positions on what peace in Ukraine should look like.
A sudden turnaround
The sudden U-turn came as a surprise because, only days earlier, both leaders had publicly described their phone call as “productive.” Trump had told reporters that “great progress was made” and that both sides would “see if we can bring this inglorious war, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.”
The Budapest summit was to be the second in-person meeting between the two leaders, following their earlier talks in Anchorage, Alaska, two months ago. That meeting had lasted nearly three hours but produced no concrete agreement, even as both sides claimed that progress had been achieved.
According to a White House official quoted by Politico, “Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov had a productive call. Therefore, an additional in-person meeting between the Secretary and Foreign Minister is not necessary, and there are no plans for President Trump to meet with President Putin in the immediate future.”
Trump himself, speaking at the White House, hinted that developments on the battlefield had influenced his decision. “A lot of things are happening on the war front. And we’ll be notifying you over the next two days as to what we’re doing,” he said.
Moscow’s unchanged stance
The primary reason behind the cancellation lies in Russia’s refusal to change its long-held negotiating position. On Monday, a call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reportedly confirmed that Moscow was not willing to shift its demands.
At a press conference in Moscow, Lavrov stated, “I believe American officials have concluded that Russia’s position has remained largely unchanged over time and remains within the bounds of its initial ‘maximalist’ demands. Russia has not altered its positions compared to understandings and prolonged negotiations between Putin and Trump in Alaska.”
He reiterated Russia’s view that peace talks must come before any ceasefire. “It is now being said from Washington that there is a need to stop immediately, that there is no need to discuss anything further, and that ‘history should judge’,” Lavrov said. “If we just stop, it means forgetting the root causes of this conflict, which the American administration clearly understood and voiced this understanding upon Trump’s assumption of power.”
Lavrov also repeated Moscow’s long-standing conditions for peace. These include holding new elections in Ukraine, ensuring that Ukraine does not join NATO, and ending what Russia calls the persecution of Russian speakers. Putin has also questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and called for international recognition of the Donbas region as Russian territory.
Russia also reaffirmed these terms in a private communique sent to the United States. According to Reuters, the document demanded that Moscow take control of the entire Donbas region and that no NATO troops be deployed in Ukraine as part of any peace arrangement.
Budapest complications and the ICC warrant
The proposed location for the meeting also created logistical and political headaches. Lavrov questioned how Putin would travel to Hungary given Poland’s public warning that it would enforce the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant if the Russian leader entered its airspace.
Although Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later tried to downplay the cancellation, telling reporters that “you cannot postpone what has not been scheduled,” the optics of a publicly announced and then abruptly scrapped summit dealt a symbolic blow to the peace effort.
The Zelensky factor
A day after his phone call with Putin, Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. The two leaders discussed Ukraine’s request for long-range weapons, particularly American-made Tomahawk cruise missiles. These missiles would allow Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, a capability Kyiv considers essential to shift battlefield momentum.
Trump, however, refused to provide the missiles. According to reports, he instead encouraged Zelensky to explore a political settlement that might include territorial concessions to Russia. This approach aligned closely with Moscow’s demands and sparked immediate criticism in Kyiv.
In his nightly address, Zelensky accused Russia of becoming “less interested in diplomacy” after the United States declined to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons. “As soon as the issue of long-range capabilities became a little further away for us -- for Ukraine -- Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy,” he said. “This is a signal that this very issue -- the issue of long-range capabilities -- may be the indispensable key to peace.”
He added, “The greater Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, the greater Russia’s willingness to end the war.”
Trump has argued that a ceasefire can be achieved without escalating the war. His proposal is to “freeze” the conflict along the existing frontlines, what he called the “line of contact.” “You go by the battle line, wherever it is. Otherwise, it’s too complicated. You’ll never be able to figure it out. You stop at the battle line,” Trump told reporters.
This proposal has been met with mixed reactions. While some European leaders described it as a potential “starting point,” others warned that it risked legitimising Russia’s territorial gains. Moscow rejected the idea outright, insisting that any ceasefire must follow a political settlement that guarantees its broader demands.
Middle East momentum, Eastern European stalemate
Trump’s optimism may have been influenced by his recent diplomatic success in the Middle East. After facilitating a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, Trump reportedly told his lead negotiator, Steve Witkoff, in Egypt, “We have to get Russia done.”
His confidence in replicating that success in Europe, however, appears to have been misplaced. Unlike in the Middle East, where Trump has deep political ties and significant leverage, his influence over Moscow and Kyiv remains limited. Over the past nine months, Trump has alternated between threatening Russia with energy sanctions and berating Ukraine for “stalling peace,” moves that have yielded few results.
European diplomats quoted by Politico said they were blindsided by the Budapest announcement. One official described Trump’s approach as being shaped by “the last person he speaks to.” Others questioned the choice of Hungary as the summit venue given its close ties to Moscow. A European diplomat told CNN that Lavrov is “100% loyal to Putin but who’s never in the room when real important decisions are being taken,” implying that talks not involving Putin directly were largely symbolic.
Battlefield escalation
While diplomacy faltered, fighting on the ground intensified. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian military claimed to have struck a Russian chemical plant with UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. “The Bryansk Chemical Plant is a key facility of the aggressor state’s military-industrial complex,” the Ukrainian military said in a post on X. The post added that the plant “produces gunpowder, explosives and rocket fuel components used in ammunition and missiles employed by the enemy to shell the territory of Ukraine.”
In response, Russia launched missile strikes on Kyiv, igniting cars and shattering windows across several districts. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that emergency services were deployed to multiple locations where debris from intercepted weapons had fallen. No casualties were reported.
Where things stand
Despite the cancellation, the White House insists that Trump remains committed to a diplomatic resolution. Spokesperson Anna Kelly told CNN, “President Trump has consistently worked towards finding a peaceful and diplomatic resolution to end this senseless war and to stop the killing. He has courageously engaged parties on all sides and will do everything in his power to achieve peace.”
However, with the talks shelved, neither side appears closer to compromise. Russia refuses to entertain a ceasefire before a political settlement, while Ukraine remains unwilling to surrender territory. Trump’s proposal to freeze the conflict where it stands may have momentarily revived debate but has not altered the underlying positions.
Zelensky reiterated after his White House visit, “The current line can be the beginning of diplomacy. Instead, Russia is again doing everything to jump off diplomacy.”
European leaders and Ukraine later issued a joint statement expressing cautious support for Trump’s suggestion that talks could begin from the existing line of contact. They also clarified that “international borders must not be changed by force,” rejecting any attempt to legitimise Russian control over occupied regions.
Whether Trump’s Budapest summit can be revived remains uncertain. Some officials have suggested that Rubio and Lavrov might meet again on the sidelines of upcoming international gatherings such as the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. For now, however, the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, and the search for peace appears no closer than before.
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