India-China relations on the mend? Why Jaishankar’s first China visit since Galwan could be a turning point

External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar arrived in Tianjin, China, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) foreign ministers’ meeting, marking his first visit to the country since the deadly Galwan clashes in 2020. The visit, alongside Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s trip in June, is being viewed as the strongest indication yet of a slow but deliberate reset in the turbulent India-China relationship.

Jaishankar’s presence in China is significant in itself. It is his first visit to the country in over five years, and comes amid a renewed push by both New Delhi and Beijing to stabilise their relationship.

The foreign minister met Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on Monday and extended support for China’s presidency of the SCO – a China-led grouping that includes India, Pakistan, Russia and several Central Asian nations.

During the meeting, Han invoked the metaphor of the “Dragon-Elephant Dance”, indicating a desire to deepen cooperation between the two Asian giants.

Referring to the 2023 meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Kazan, Han described it as a pivotal moment that helped restart and advance China-India ties. He emphasised that as major developing nations and key members of the Global South, China and India must “choose to be partners that support each other’s success”, noting that the “Dragon-Elephant Dance” remains the right path forward.

“Pleased to meet Vice President Han Zheng soon after my arrival in Beijing today, and conveyed India’s support for China’s SCO Presidency. Noted the improvement in our bilateral ties. And expressed confidence that discussions during my visit will maintain that positive trajectory,” Jaishankar said on X.

He added, “The international situation, as we meet today, is very complex. As neighbouring nations and major economies, an open exchange of views and perspectives between India and China is very important. I look forward to such discussions during this visit.”

According to reports, Jaishankar is also expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, to discuss the Dalai Lama issue, rare earth supplies, cross-border flights, and the India-Pakistan conflict — topics that are both sensitive and strategic.

Momentum since Rajnath’s visit

Jaishankar’s trip builds on momentum generated by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Qingdao in June for the SCO Defence Ministers’ meet — the first visit by an Indian defence minister to China in over a decade.

During that trip, Singh met his Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun and outlined a four-pronged approach to stabilize ties, including adherence to the 2024 disengagement pact, accelerated de-escalation, demarcation of borders, and trust-building.

“Held talks with Admiral Dong Jun, the Defence Minister of China, on the sidelines of SCO Defence Ministers’ Meeting in Qingdao. We had a constructive and forward looking exchange of views on issues pertaining to bilateral relations,” Singh wrote on social media.

India also appreciated China’s decision to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, a symbolic pilgrimage route long suspended due to Covid-19 and border tensions.

“The resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra is widely appreciated in India. Continued normalisation of our ties can produce mutually beneficial outcomes,” Jaishankar said during his meeting.

Rajnath had also stated: “Expressed my happiness on restarting of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra after a gap of nearly six years. It is incumbent on both the sides to maintain this positive momentum and avoid adding new complexities in the bilateral relationship.”

Setting the stage for PM Modi’s visit

Another critical outcome of Jaishankar’s and Rajnath’s visits is the potential groundwork being laid for PM Modi’s visit to China later this year for the SCO Leaders’ Summit. Beijing had “warmly invited” Modi, though New Delhi has not confirmed his participation.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also expected to travel to India later this month to revive the Special Representatives (SR) mechanism for border dialogue with India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. The mechanism was reactivated after Xi Jinping and Modi met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in October 2024.

Border talks and de-escalation remain key

Despite the positive tone, border de-escalation remains a core concern. Jaishankar is expected to push China to accelerate the permanent disengagement roadmap at critical friction points such as Demchok and Depsang.

Rajnath Singh had earlier emphasised the need for a structured de-escalation plan and trust-building mechanisms. “A structured roadmap of permanent engagement and de-escalation” is vital, he said, along with a “permanent solution of border demarcation.”

Experts: India reassessing strategic calculus

Geopolitical experts view India’s outreach as calculated pragmatism amid a shifting global landscape.

“India thought it would be a very close strategic ally (of the US) but they were not getting the support they were expecting from Washington,” said Professor Christopher Clary of University of Albany to BBC.

China’s growing influence over multilateral institutions like SCO and BRICS is also pushing India to recalibrate, said Phunchok Stobdan, a former senior Indian diplomat.

“India sees this as the pragmatic approach. At the same time, it does not want to be seen yielding too much to the Chinese demands for domestic reasons,” he noted.

Not all smooth sailing

Jaishankar’s visit comes amid fresh irritants, particularly over the Dalai Lama issue. After Indian leaders extended greetings on the spiritual leader’s 90th birthday, Beijing reacted sharply.

“They should be fully cognizant of the sensitivity of issues related to Xizang, and that the reincarnation and succession of the Dalai Lama is inherently an internal affair of China, brooking no interference of any external forces,” China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Yu said.