How Trump’s swings between Moscow and Kyiv shape the battlefield

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Over the past year, US President Donald Trump has veered sharply in his handling of Russia’s war on Ukraine—alternating between calling Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and sanctioning Russia’s biggest oil companies. His moves have left both Kyiv and Moscow guessing whether Washington’s ultimate goal is peace through pressure or rapprochement with the Kremlin, the Financial Times reported.

From hostility to outreach and back again

In February, Trump lashed out at Zelenskyy, pausing US weapons and intelligence support to Ukraine. But by April, he shifted gears, publicly urging Vladimir Putin to halt strikes on Kyiv and suggesting “banking” or “secondary sanctions” to pressure Moscow. The reversal was short-lived: by August, Trump welcomed Putin to Alaska and floated a full “peace agreement” that echoed Russian demands for territorial concessions.

Oil sanctions mark a turning point

That détente collapsed on October 22, when Trump finally imposed sweeping sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil—the first direct hit on Russia’s energy sector. The move followed weeks of failed talks, including a scrapped meeting with Putin in Budapest. “It came as a very unexpected and pleasant surprise,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s foreign affairs committee, though he warned that Trump could “swing back to a Russia-friendly position as soon as he talks to Putin.”

Mixed messages to Kyiv

Trump’s tone toward Ukraine has fluctuated as often as his policies. In one moment, he vowed to supply Tomahawk missiles to strengthen Ukraine’s defence; days later, he backtracked, warning that the weapons were “too dangerous.” He’s alternately threatened and cajoled Zelenskyy—at one point urging him to accept Putin’s terms or face “destruction.” The oscillations have frustrated Ukrainian officials seeking clarity on US backing for their survival.

Strategic ambiguity or political calculation?

Analysts see Trump’s unpredictability as a hallmark of his foreign policy style—testing leverage, signalling toughness, then pulling back. The sanctions against Moscow could mark a genuine pivot, but few expect consistency. “Knowing Trump,” one Ukrainian official said, “it can change with a single phone call.”

The stakes ahead

With sanctions in place and the front lines frozen, Trump’s next steps could reshape the conflict’s trajectory. If his economic pressure deepens Russia’s fuel crisis, Washington may regain influence over peace terms. But if the US president once again reverses course, allies fear a repeat of the year’s most defining pattern: a diplomacy of improvisation in one of the world’s longest wars.