How the world’s biggest mining project became China’s global win

China’s iron grip on Simandou

After nearly three decades of delays, political intrigue and corporate feuds, Guinea’s $23 billion Simandou iron ore mine has finally begun production. Long regarded as an impossible dream, the project has emerged as the largest mining development in history, built around high-grade deposits that could redefine global steelmaking. For Guinea, one of the world’s poorest nations, the mine represents a chance to quadruple its economy by 2040. For China, it is a strategic triumph that could loosen Australia’s grip on iron ore supply, the Financial Times reported.

Guinea’s new ambitions

Simandou’s output is projected to reach 120 million tonnes a year, making it a vital engine for Guinea’s long-term growth. Mining minister Bouna Sylla calls it “an opportunity to change the life of our people,” laying out a national plan known as Simandou 2040 that envisions $200 billion in infrastructure, schools, and industrial investment. General Mamadi Doumbouya, who seized power in 2021, has tied his presidency to the mine’s success, insisting that Guinea hold a 15 percent stake in both the mine and the logistics firm running its port and railway.

A history of scandals and setbacks

Discovered in the 1990s by Rio Tinto, the Simandou project became a case study in the perils of resource politics. A 2008 decree by Guinea’s late dictator Lansana Conté stripped Rio of half its concession, transferring it to Israeli tycoon Beny Steinmetz’s BSG Resources, which later sold part of its share to Brazil’s Vale for $2.5 billion. The deal unravelled amid bribery allegations, international lawsuits, and a Swiss court conviction against Steinmetz, though he continues to deny wrongdoing. For years, global mining majors balked at the project’s enormous cost—until Chinese companies stepped in.

China’s takeover of the project

When the Chinese-Singaporean Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS) acquired the contested blocks in 2019, the project was finally revived. Backed by China’s Baowu Steel and shipping magnate Sun Xiushun, WCS moved quickly to build the 650-kilometre railway linking the mine to the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto retained a 25 percent stake in the western blocks, partnering with Chinalco, China’s state-owned aluminium group. The result is a two-sided mine—half developed by the Rio-Chinalco venture, half by WCS—but united by Chinese financing and engineering.

A geopolitical balancing act

President Doumbouya has played his role as both nationalist and pragmatist, demanding American locomotives for the Chinese-built railway and French signalling systems to diversify foreign influence. The mix, one official quipped, “looks like the United Nations.” Yet the arrangement reflects a clear power shift. As the world’s largest steelmaker, China consumes nearly three-quarters of all iron ore traded globally. With Simandou, it can now influence pricing and reduce dependence on Australian and Brazilian suppliers that have dominated the market for decades.

Global market impact

At full capacity, Simandou could supply about 7 percent of global seaborne iron ore. Analysts predict its output will drive prices down from roughly $100 to $70–$80 per tonne in the coming years, pressuring established producers in Australia’s Pilbara region. The high-grade 65 percent iron content of Simandou’s ore gives it a key advantage in the transition to “green steel,” allowing mills to cut carbon emissions. This environmental edge could make it indispensable as global decarbonisation efforts accelerate.

Challenges and risks ahead

Despite its promise, Simandou faces familiar hazards. Guinea’s record of coups and political volatility raises concerns about resource nationalism and investor security. Environmental groups warn of damage to rainforests and water systems, while the end of construction could leave thousands of local workers unemployed. The government has pledged to invest 5 percent of mine revenues and 20 percent of logistics profits into education and community development, but execution remains uncertain.

A turning point for Africa—and for China

For now, optimism dominates in Conakry. The mine’s launch has already earned Guinea its first-ever sovereign credit rating, a step toward accessing international markets. China, meanwhile, has demonstrated how its state-backed financing and industrial coordination can deliver a project that Western companies failed to complete for nearly 30 years. As trains begin hauling ore to the coast and the first shipments depart for Chinese ports, Simandou stands as both a national awakening for Guinea and a symbol of Beijing’s growing command over the world’s mineral future.