Tata Motors PV shares crash 6% today after weak Q2, JLR guidance cut; analysts flag margin, output pressures

Tata Motors PV Ltd

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) shares fell as much as 6 percent on Monday after the company reported weak Q2 FY26 results, led by a sharp deterioration in Jaguar Land Rover’s profitability, a steep cut in its full-year margin guidance, and a larger-than-expected operational impact from the cyberattack.

At market open, the stock was trading at Rs 369, down 5.7 percent from Friday’s close of Rs 391.2, with analysts weighing the depth of JLR’s disruption, the scale of the EBITDA loss, and a divided stance on the near-term recovery path. The Q2 report was Tata Motors PV’s first as a standalone entity and comes amid a challenging global demand environment for premium vehicles.

Q2 at a glance: large JLR losses, guidance cut, cyber incident drags

The quarterly performance weakened sharply due to Jaguar Land Rover, which slashed its full-year EBIT margin outlook to 0-2 percent from 5-7 percent and warned of a GBP 2.2-2.5 billion free cash outflow. JLR reported a GBP 485-million loss before tax and exceptional items, with revenue down 24.3 percent year-on-year to GBP 24.9 billion and margins turning negative, as the cyber incident halted production in September. Adjusted for the one-time gain from the CV demerger, the PV business would have posted a Rs 6,370-crore loss versus a Rs 3,056-crore profit last year. On a standalone basis, TMPV logged an adjusted loss of Rs 237 crore even as revenue rose 6 percent to Rs 12,751 crore, while EBITDA dropped to Rs 303 crore from Rs 717 crore, shrinking its margin to 2.4 percent.

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Brokerage views: sentiment cautious, outlook split

• Jefferies: Underperform; Target Price Rs 300 | Jefferies expects the impact of the cyberattack to spill over into Q3, with normalisation only from Q4. It cited multiple structural headwinds at JLR -- competition, China’s consumption tax, heavier discounting, BEV transition pressures and ageing models. It added that India PV’s resilience is not enough to counter JLR weakness.
• Goldman Sachs: Neutral; Target Price Rs 365 | Goldman Sachs attributed the Q2 miss due to a larger-than-estimated JLR’s disruption, with revenue and EBITDA coming in at +2/-130 percent versus its forecasts. It said JLR EBITDA underperformed estimates, and management now expects 30,000 units of lost production in Q3, higher than the 20,000 units lost in Q2.
• CLSA: Outperform; Target Price Rs 450 | CLSA also noted the JLR margin hit, with EBIT margin at -8.6 percent vs -2 percent expected, driven by a complete production loss in September. It also noted the October output at 17,000 units. The firm pointed to 5.8 percent EBITDA margin in India PV. It remains constructive on the India business, citing the benefits of GST cuts for small-to-mid SUVs, even as it flagged JLR’s lower FY26 EBIT guidance (0-2 percent).

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