How Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire could affect war

The strikes have been intended to hurt the other side’s ability to wage war, or weaken the resolve of its people by making daily life more difficult

Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago, vital energy facilities have been targeted countless times by missiles and drones in both countries.

The strikes have been intended to hurt the other side’s ability to wage war, or weaken the resolve of its people by making daily life more difficult. As such, a 30-day halt to attacks on energy infrastructure could help both countries if it was implemented.

That’s far from certain, because although the Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin had accepted the proposal, his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Moscow’s attacks on energy assets continued on Tuesday night.

Here’s what to know about the role of energy infrastructure in the war.

What energy infrastructure has been attacked?

Throughout the war Russia has targeted Ukraine’s electricity system, causing widespread damage to power plants and networks with missiles and drones. More recently, Moscow has focused its fire on infrastructure for natural gas. Airstrikes curbed production from Naftogaz Group by more than a third, forcing Ukraine to import more expensive gas from the European Union. Storage facilities and compressor stations have also been hit.

For Kyiv, Russia’s sprawling network of oil refineries is the prime target. Ukraine has launched multiple waves of attacks numbering many thousands of drones at over a huge area of Russian territory, from the Moscow region to Bashkortostan, just west of the Urals mountains. Crude-export facilities have also been targeted, but with less frequency.

What has been the impact?

Russia’s attacks on electricity infrastructure have been concentrated in the winter months, when power demand is greatest. The impact has been greatest on the civilian population, even in areas far from the front line, which have endured regular blackouts amid sub-zero temperatures.

Kyiv’s strikes on refineries have two goals — to restrict fuel supplies to invading troops on the front line, and curb the oil-export revenue that has been vital to help the Kremlin fund its military aggression.

Its difficult to gauge whether Ukraine’s drones have achieved these aims. Many of the unmanned aircraft have been shot down, but enough have hit their target to significantly reduce Russia’s crude-processing on several occasions. This has caused some disruption on the country’s domestic fuel markets, including a temporary ban on gasoline exports last year, but never triggered widespread energy shortages of a comparable scale to Ukraine’s blackouts.

Last year neither “Russia’s agriculture, nor the transport sector, nor private motorists, nor military industry faced shortage of fuel,” said Sergey Vakulenko, who spent a decade as an executive at a Russian oil producer, and is now a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s refineries this year “have not shown any fundamental change in scale, severity or success rate.”

What would a ceasefire mean for each country?

Russia would face less risk of a drone attack causing a significant refinery outage in the near term, when its plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance and fuel demand is elevated as farmers plant their crops in spring, said Ron Smith from Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Consulting Partners LLC, who has been following the country’s oil industry for 25 years.

With Russia having excess capacity distributed through refineries scattered across the country and an increase in defensive measures taken at plants closer to the border with Ukraine, this was already a low-probability risk, Smith said.

A cessation of Russian attacks on power plants could give the people of Ukraine a break from blackouts, which have become less severe since the end of the coldest winter weather but can still happen on a localized level, such when Moscow attacked a facility in the Dnipropetrovsk region on Tuesday night.

It could also help Ukraine at least partially repair damaged facilities, while also giving it more time for annual maintenance of the country’s nuclear power plants. Kyiv has come to rely even more on its reactors during the war, since Russian attacks have focused on plants that burn fossil fuels.

A break in airstrikes could also allow Ukraine to increase domestic gas production and pump greater volumes of the fuel into storage over the summer — vital preparation for next winter.