How a secret prisoner swap almost reshaped US-Russia diplomacy — and why it collapsed

Navalny, a prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, passed away on February 16 while incarcerated on charges widely regarded as politically motivated.

In November 2023, Roger Carstens, the US special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, was in Israel to help American families whose loved ones had been taken hostage by Hamas. While there, he learned Roman Abramovich — the Russian billionaire with unique access to the Kremlin — was in the same city. Twice before, the Biden administration had denied Carstens permission to meet Abramovich, but he considered the oligarch one of a handful of “back channel wizards” who could unlock deadlocked talks. This time, Carstens decided not to wait for clearance. He fired off a quick email to Washington saying he was about to meet Abramovich, then walked into a Tel Aviv hotel to see him, the Wall Street Journal reported.

An audacious proposal

Over the table, Carstens acknowledged that the CIA’s prisoner negotiations with Russia’s FSB had stalled. The existing US offer excluded two central figures — Navalny, whom Germany wanted freed, and Vadim Krasikov, a Russian assassin jailed in Berlin for murdering a Putin opponent. Carstens floated a new, unofficial idea: “enlarge the problem.” Germany would free Krasikov if Russia freed Navalny. The US and allies could add deep-cover Russian sleeper agents to sweeten the deal, and in exchange, Russia would release Americans Paul Whelan and Evan Gershkovich. Abramovich doubted Putin would ever let Navalny go. Yet days later, he came back with unexpected news — Putin was willing.

Momentum builds

In early December, Navalny was moved without explanation to a prison above the Arctic Circle, nicknamed “Polar Wolf.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Biden began discreetly shaping the diplomatic framework to make the deal happen. Scholz agreed to release Krasikov — an extraordinary political gamble aimed at saving Navalny and bolstering Biden’s position before the US election. Intelligence teams across the West worked to locate and secure Russian spies, cybercriminals, and other high-value prisoners who could be traded.

Munich optimism — and the breaking point

By February 2024, the Munich Security Conference became an unofficial staging ground for the deal’s final steps. Navalny’s allies, including investigative journalist Christo Grozev and activist Maria Pevchikh, hovered near top security officials to ensure no last-minute hitch. Vice President Kamala Harris confirmed Slovenia’s role in handing over two Russian spies posing as Argentines. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reassured Germany’s foreign minister about the moral line they were crossing. Navalny’s wife, Yulia, was in Munich to help quell doubts. The mood was tense but hopeful.

Then, during a lunch between the FBI director and the heads of Britain’s MI6 and Germany’s BND, phones lit up: Russian state media announced Navalny had died in prison. Within minutes, the conference atmosphere turned to shock. Diplomats scrambled into side rooms. In front of the world’s top security officials, the deal’s central figure was gone.

Grief, anger, and a collapsed deal

Yulia Navalnaya met Blinken in his hotel suite, delivering a furious message that Putin would be held accountable. She told Scholz not to release Krasikov. For Carstens, who had just landed in Germany, it felt like a personal failure. “We could have wrapped this up in August,” he told associates. In Russia’s IK-17 labour camp, Paul Whelan phoned his family, fearing he might be next. Navalny’s supporters lost not only the man they were trying to save, but the democratic future he represented for Russia.

Recalibrating the trade

In Washington, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Wall Street Journal representatives and Gershkovich’s mother. He admitted he had doubted the Navalny deal would succeed — but now saw an opening. Germany had already agreed to release Krasikov, which meant a broader trade might still be possible without Navalny. Over the following months, CIA officers met Russian counterparts in Saudi hotels under false names, carrying paper lists of potential swaps.

The largest East-West swap since the Cold War

On August 1, 2024, six planes met on a Turkish airstrip to exchange 24 prisoners and two children. The West returned Krasikov, Russian spies, hackers, and cybercriminals. In return, Russia freed dissidents, German convicts, and Americans — including Whelan and Gershkovich. The deal was a diplomatic milestone, but it came too late for Navalny. His arrest, the frantic campaign to free him, and his death underscored a stark reality: in today’s geopolitical order, powerful states increasingly treat human beings as bargaining chips, bending the justice system to serve foreign policy goals.