‘Hindi Chini Bhai-Bhai’ again? Trump plays unlikely matchmaker in India–China thaw; but for how long?

In this handout photograph taken and released by the India's Press Information Bureau (PIB) on October 12, 2019, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) along with China's President Xi Jinping interact with each other during their summit in Mahabalipuram in Tamil Nadu.

For decades, India and China have been locked in a wary dance – partners in trade, rivals at the border, and competitors for global influence. But now, an unlikely matchmaker is nudging them closer: Donald Trump’s policies and tariff blitz. Facing steep US duties and shifting American loyalties, the two Asian giants are tentatively reopening channels, from restarting flights to resuming pilgrimages and energy shipments. The question is whether this thaw is the start of a strategic reset, or just a temporary pause in an otherwise fraught relationship.

A sudden thaw after years of frost

The Galwan Valley clash in 2020 brought India–China relations to a near-freeze, stopping direct flights, disrupting border trade, and halting high-level visits.

Now, after years of tension, signs of a thaw are emerging. Direct passenger flights could resume as early as September, with an announcement expected during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit later this month.

India has also resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese citizens after a five-year gap, and the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra has restarted.

On the trade front, Indian diesel shipments are headed to China for the first time since 2021.

Last October, the two countries reached a border patrol and disengagement agreement, allowing Indian herders to return to grazing in areas that were previously off-limits.

The Trump factor in the recalibration

Trump’s trade policies have given both India and China a common headache. While he has slapped a total 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, he has extended a tariff truce with China, avoiding triple-digit duties on Chinese exports. That asymmetry has not gone unnoticed in New Delhi.

In parallel, reports suggest the Trump administration is exploring closer ties with Islamabad, potentially to pry Pakistan away from China. For India, this raises alarms. Strengthening its own channels with Beijing is one way to hedge against US unpredictability and counter any Washington-Islamabad entente.

Even within China, Trump’s Pakistan outreach is being read as a possible attempt to undermine the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) or gather intelligence on Chinese military systems in Pakistani use.

Delhi-based economist Biswajit Dhar opines that Trump’s protectionism is a common concern for both India and China. “I think he has pushed India and China closer together,” Dhar told South China Morning Post.

Speaking the same language

What followed Trump’s tirade was a rare sight: India and China appeared aligned in their response.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a firm statement, calling the US actions “unjustified and unreasonable.” It highlighted Washington and the EU’s own continued trade with Russia, including US purchases of uranium, palladium, and fertilizers, and rejected any double standards.

Across the border, China’s foreign ministry struck a similar note, vowing to pursue energy security “in ways that serve our national interests” and warning Washington that “coercion will not work.” China’s deputy envoy to the UN Geng Shuang also lashed out at the US for its hypocrisy in buying Russian goods while punishing others for the same.

Chinese state media praised India for continuing to buy Russian oil, with Global Times calling it an example of India’s “independent foreign policy.” Qian Feng of Tsinghua University said India relies on affordable, high-quality Russian oil to meet its energy needs and support economic growth, despite US pressure.

Geopolitics and self-interest

Both countries have clear incentives to improve ties. For India, it means a counterbalance to US economic pressure and a chance to calm a tense border. For China, it offers a way to ease one Quad member’s stance and avoid conflicts with two major Asian powers at once.

That’s why Beijing recently backed India’s sovereignty after Washington threatened extra tariffs over Russian oil imports, a rare public show of support for Delhi.

Obstacles to a full reconciliation

A real reset won’t be easy. The Line of Actual Control (LAC) disputes remain unresolved, and trust is still low after the Galwan clash.

China maintains an “ironclad” partnership with Pakistan, including nuclear and military cooperation, highlighted by Pakistan’s use of Chinese-made weapons in Operation Sindoor against India.

Projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo mega dam and the planned Xinjiang–Tibet railway near Aksai Chin are also viewed in Delhi as major security concerns.

Temporary truce or strategic shift?

This looks less like a full reconciliation and more like a pause in hostilities, driven by Trump-era uncertainty. Tariffs and the need to manage multiple strategic challenges have pushed both sides toward pragmatism.

Political economist Dominic Rohner says there are clear reasons to strengthen ties, but lasting peace depends on how both sides handle their disputes.

For now, India and China are talking, trading, and even resuming flights. The real test will come when the next flashpoint, whether at the border, in the Indo-Pacific, or in Washington, forces a choice between cooperation and confrontation.