Trump-Modi talks soon? Decoding the positive turn in India, US trade negotiations

Donald Trump seems to be walking a tightrope between tough and conciliatory in his dealings with India. As his administration’s sweeping tariffs face a fast-tracked legal battle before the US Supreme Court, his tone towards New Delhi his visibly shifted. While once wielding punitive duties and sharp rhetoric, Trump is now offering public gestures of goodwill even as he pressures Europe to follow suit with tariffs targeting India.

This pivot comes at a delicate moment: his tariffs are now entrenched in law, defended as emergency powers, and under fierce scrutiny in what could become a historic decision on presidential authority.

Trump Tariffs face scrutiny

Trump's tariffs, promoted under emergency powers, are under the judicial microscope. The US Supreme Court agreed on Tuesday to hear appeals challenging the legality of these "reciprocal tariffs," which impose baseline duties of 10% and, in some cases, tariffs as steep as 50% on imports. Oral arguments are scheduled for the first week of November, in what amounts to a rare fast-track hearing, signalling the case’s immense economic and constitutional importance.

Lower courts have already ruled against Trump’s strategy. The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit found he had overreached by imposing sweeping, indefinite tariffs via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law intended for sanctions, not trade barriers. That ruling upheld an earlier injunction from the Court of International Trade, which held that such broad tariffs exceed presidential authority without acting alongside Congress.

Even now, the tariffs stay active pending the Supreme Court’s verdict, but the stakes are sky-high. If overturned, the Treasury could be liable to refund between $750 billion and $1 trillion in collected duties.

After previously slamming India with 50% tariffs and labelling it a trade abuser, Trump now calls Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “dear friend” and speaks optimistically of trade momentum.

Modi, in turn, reaffirmed India as “close friends and natural partners” and expressed confidence that current trade talks would unlock significant potential for both nations. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also confirmed that New Delhi’s diplomatic team is deeply engaged in ongoing negotiations.

This softer tone stands in stark contrast to just a few weeks ago, when Trump sharply accused India of being a “very big abuser” in trade. He demanded sweeping concessions and blamed New Delhi for aligning with Russia and China. But as legal pressure mounts and signs of economic strain emerge, Trump appears to be recalibrating, if only slightly.

Still fighting

Despite the friendly rhetoric, Trump continues to wield tariffs as a bargaining chip. His administration isn’t merely throttling imports from India—they’re demanding EU support for even harsher measures. In recent meetings, Trump suggested that the European Union should impose 50% to 100% tariffs on countries like India and China to choke off revenue sources for Russia’s war machine. The US stands ready to match such tariffs, but only if Europe moves in lockstep.

These demands ring hollow given Trump’s sudden tone shift. While publicly welcoming India as a partner, he privately pressures European allies to escalate jousting with New Delhi. European leaders, pushing back against EU secondary sanctions, seem ill inclined to take the bait.

A strategic pivot?

What’s really behind Trump’s shift? Legal peril may be pricking his bigger strategy. His trade agenda now hinges on a Supreme Court win, or else face refunds that could derail his budget and reshape executive power for years to come.

With that in mind, the public charm offensive toward India might be a delayed damage control. If the high court strikes down his tariffs, he’ll need to show diplomacy, not breakdown, even as he pressures others to pick sides. Meanwhile, India is holding firm. Modi pledged to “pay a very heavy price” rather than cave, while protecting farmers and resisting US demands to liberalise markets. Domestic pressures in India, combined with the legal uncertainty in the US, suggest that Trump’s conciliatory tone may be more superficial than substantive.