'Definitely a challenge': Why Pakistan’s deepening military engagement with Bangladesh should worry India

Bangladesh-Pakistan ties raise alarms in India

A four-member delegation from the Pakistan Army, led by Lieutenant General Tabassum Habib, Director General of Joint Staff (DGJS), arrived in Dhaka on October 6 for a four-day visit. The visit, described by Pakistani officials as a “goodwill visit,” is aimed at strengthening defence cooperation between Islamabad and Bangladesh.

According to Pakistani media reports, the delegation includes a Commodore and a Major-rank officer from the Pakistan Navy. The visit was arranged at the invitation of Bangladesh’s Armed Forces Division (AFD), which coordinates the country’s three defence services and operates under Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus. The AFD’s Operations and Planning Directorate reportedly finalised the invitation last month.

This visit follows a series of military and intelligence exchanges between the two countries. Earlier in January, a Bangladesh Army delegation led by Lieutenant General SM Kamrul Hasan visited Pakistan, and a three-member team from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) also visited Dhaka. At least two Pakistani military delegations have visited Bangladesh since that ISI visit, raising strategic concerns in New Delhi.

Bangladesh’s shift in focus

Speaking to Moneycontrol, former diplomat Anil Trigunayat addressed the rationale behind Bangladesh’s growing engagement with Pakistan. “It is not that Bangladesh needs Pakistan or its army support in any which way. The problem is with the focus of the current regime which is trying to enhance its ties more with Pakistan and basically with China and United States as compared to India. That is their focus right now because they want to maintain some kind of distance or some kind of autonomy.”

He pointed to recent acquisitions by Bangladesh, including Chinese fighter aircraft, as part of this strategy. “We have seen that they’re also buying some Chinese aircrafts and all that,” Trigunayat said, noting the potential challenges for India: “For us it is definitely going to be a challenge because Pakistan’s intention against India are very well known both across our line of control as well as in the international forum.”

Historical context and Pakistan’s long-term strategy

Trigunayat emphasised that Pakistan has long sought influence in Bangladesh. “Yes, Pakistan has been angling for it for a very long time actually. It is not from now. It is since 1971 and as you know several of their generals have a great sympathy and close connection with Pakistan and therefore they are continuing to develop these engagements both economically and in the military terms. It is not the first time we have seen that these statements coming out by Mr Muhammad Yunus and the Pakistan leadership,” he said.

On Bangladesh’s domestic choice, he added: “It is up to the Bangladeshi people if that is what they want to entertain — the same kind of people who had butchered them who raped their women and all. So it’s up to Bangladesh government but definitely we will have to keep and be more vigilant going forward.”

Security concerns for India

The proximity of Rangpur Division in northern Bangladesh to India’s Chicken’s Neck corridor, a narrow land strip connecting India’s northeastern states to the mainland, has heightened Indian security concerns.

“Indeed, it can pose a threat to India’s security because now you don’t even have to worry about one front or two front, now it could be at least 2.5 front if it was possible. Hopefully we will not come to that but this is a Chicken’s Neck of course is very critical in this domain,” Trigunayat said. He also noted statements by Yunus during his visit to China referencing the seven northeastern states, calling them “something which can be devious but of course we have to be more cautious and careful about this because that is a potential opening that can be…”

External influence: China and the U.S.

Trigunayat highlighted the role of China in the region: “Yeah, I mean China and Pakistan relationship is quite ironclad and so obviously if Pakistan wants to go there and China is very well embedded in Bangladesh as we have known over the years. It is not only from now that something new is going to happen it is something that we have seen for a very long time. So it is quite possible that if Bangladeshi Pakistanis would been working the ISI and some of these Islamist parties who are pro-Pakistan are working there and therefore we can always expect some kind of realignment with those forces which are inimical to India’s interest.”

Regarding the U.S., he said: “The Americans have been looking for a base in the region as well in Bangladesh. I understand there have been some hundred troops from USA that have been deployed there. So if that is something that is likely to happen then it will definitely be a problem for India both from the Chinese front as well as the United States.”

The Indian Ocean dimension

On Bangladesh’s strategic role in the Indian Ocean, Trigunayat said: “The Indian Ocean, of course, is vital. Bangladesh is a major partner for India in the BIMSTEC and the wider Indian Ocean region.”

He also warned about the possibility of Bangladesh allowing access to strategic locations: “If they [Bangladesh] cede some access to the key places, it will affect India’s maritime and regional interests,” he said.

Vigilance required

With Bangladesh deepening its engagements with Pakistan, China, and potentially the United States, Trigunayat highlighted the need for India to remain alert. “We have to be more cautious and careful,” he said, emphasising that India must monitor these developments along both its land borders and maritime frontiers.