Canada’s growing curiosity about EU membership: Real possibility or political fantasy?

Canada’s growing curiosity about EU membership

As tensions between Ottawa and Washington rise under US President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies, a surprising new political idea is quietly gaining traction among Canadians: joining the European Union. In a recent poll, 44 percent of Canadians said they would support EU membership — a figure that surpasses the 34 percent who oppose the idea.

The idea, while still far from the mainstream, reflects growing public frustration over Trump's economic hostility toward Canada and a search for new, stable allies. But despite a warm response from some in Brussels, the path to EU membership is neither straightforward nor likely, Politico reported.

Legally implausible, but not impossible

The European Commission’s chief spokesperson Paula Pinho welcomed the poll results as an “honour,” but pointed to Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, which states that only “European states” may apply for membership. That caveat, however, may be more flexible than it appears. Scholars argue that “Europeanness” is not strictly geographical.

“Being European is more of a state of mind,” said Giselle Bosse, a professor of EU external democracy support at Maastricht University. She noted that Canada shares deep institutional, cultural and legal similarities with Europe — from its belief in the welfare state to a governance model derived from European institutions.

Frank Schimmelfennig, professor of European politics at ETH Zurich, agreed, saying, “Canada would certainly qualify” in terms of values and institutions, adding that it aligns more closely with EU standards than several current candidates like Turkey or Georgia.

Economic realities may kill the dream

Despite this philosophical compatibility, practical challenges could make Canada’s EU dream a political non-starter. To comply with EU rules, Canada would need to erect a customs border with the United States and adopt EU tariffs and regulations — a move that could seriously disrupt its largest trading relationship.

“It would be incredibly economically destructive,” warned Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform, noting that the costs would likely outweigh any long-term benefits. Moreover, EU membership requires unanimous approval from existing member states — and even referendums in some, like France.

Bond noted one particularly likely source of resistance: “How often have French farmers voted in favour of free trade with other parts of the world? They are more likely to set things on fire in an effort to prevent it from happening.”

Canada’s diplomatic gestures — and missteps

While membership may remain out of reach, Canada is already strengthening its economic and political ties with the EU. New Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first foreign visit was to France, where he met President Emmanuel Macron to discuss expanding cooperation on defence, commerce and climate.

However, Carney’s statement during the visit — calling Canada “the most European of non-European countries” — could unintentionally undermine any future application. If the EU defines membership by being European, Canada branding itself an outsider might hurt its case more than help it.

Frustrating for countries still in line

There’s also the question of fairness. Countries like Ukraine, Moldova and several Western Balkan nations have waited years — some decades — to advance their EU membership bids. For Turkey and Georgia, talks have largely stalled due to concerns over democracy and the rule of law.

Accepting a stable, affluent democracy like Canada might be strategically appealing, but it could infuriate those still stuck in the queue.

A symbolic shift, not a realistic bid

For now, EU membership for Canada seems more symbolic than strategic — a reflection of shifting allegiances and disillusionment with the United States under Trump. While European scholars may argue that Canada has the values to qualify, the political, geographic and economic hurdles remain too high.

Instead, Canada may pursue deeper economic agreements like updating its Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the EU — steps that bring it closer without crossing the membership threshold.

As of now, Canada’s European future remains a thought experiment — intriguing to some, but unlikely to become reality.