What is Milky Way’s fate? Andromeda may not collide with our galaxy, a new study suggests

This illustration shows a stage in the predicted merger between our Milky Way galaxy and the neighboring Andromeda galaxy, (Image: NASA/ESA/Z. Levay/ R. van der Marel/ STScI; T. Hallas/ A. Mellinger

For centuries, we imagined a dramatic cosmic crash. The Milky Way was thought destined to collide with Andromeda. Now, new research offers a fresh, hopeful perspective. The galaxies might just narrowly avoid a fatal crash, scientists say.

Collision Chances Revised

The Andromeda galaxy, about 2.5 million light-years away, moves fast. At 110 kilometres per second, it heads towards our Milky Way. For years, astronomers believed this meant a merger was inevitable. But a recent study published in Nature Astronomy suggests otherwise. The odds of collision are now nearly 50-50 for the next 10 billion years. This lowers previous estimates that predicted a near-certain crash. The research highlights the influence of smaller galaxies in the Local Group. These galaxies could shift paths and prevent the two giants from colliding.

Co-author Alis Deason from Durham University explained, “Our galaxy once seemed destined to merge with Andromeda. Now, there’s a real chance we might avoid this fate.” This finding challenges long-held views of a “Milkomeda” galaxy forming billions of years from now.

How Scientists Reached This Conclusion

The team used data from Gaia and Hubble space telescopes. They studied the mass, movement, and gravity of four main Local Group galaxies. These include the Milky Way, Andromeda, the Triangulum Galaxy, and the Large Magellanic Cloud. Simulations based on this data revealed many possible future scenarios. The presence and pull of these smaller galaxies can drastically change the galaxies’ paths. This means the merger could be delayed or avoided altogether. If a collision does happen, it may not occur for another 8 billion years.

The study’s authors stress their results are not the final word. They look forward to new data from Gaia’s recalibrated instruments. This will improve understanding of galaxy motions and masses. They say, “Galactic eschatology, or the study of galaxies’ end days, is still young.” More research is needed to predict the Local Group’s future with confidence.

Looking Beyond the Collision

Eventually, all galaxies in the Local Group may merge. But this could take far longer than the universe’s current age. Co-author Carlos Frenk from Durham University added, “We often see galaxies collide, producing cosmic fireworks.” These events fuel black holes and unleash intense radiation before settling. “We believed this was the Milky Way’s destiny. Now, we know there’s a good chance to avoid that scary end.”

This new study offers a more hopeful cosmic future. It suggests the Milky Way might not face a dramatic merger anytime soon. Instead, it could quietly continue its journey through space for now.