Odds of impact of newly discovered asteroid rise increase slightly again

The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in seven years has increased, now standing at 1 in 43

The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in seven years has increased, now standing at 1 in 43, making it the primary concern at NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry.

The asteroid, about the size of a football field, carries the explosive energy of multiple nuclear bombs. It was initially detected on December 27, 2024, by the Atlas Telescope in Chile.

Notably, asteroid expert David Rankin had pre-discovered 2024 YR4 by identifying images of it in archived data, using information from the Catalina Sky Survey, as reported by Space.com.

Initially, the probability of an impact was 1 in 83, which represented a 1.2% chance of collision. The odds have now increased to 1 in 43, or a 2.3% chance of impact.

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However, Rankin told Space.com that "this still means there is a 97.7% chance it will miss Earth."

While experts had anticipated the probability of impact to rise, they now anticipate that the chances of a collision will likely decrease significantly as more details about the asteroid’s orbit are uncovered.

Experts note that such fluctuations in impact probabilities are normal in the asteroid tracking process. As new observations are made, predictions will be refined. Space agencies like NASA and ESA are monitoring the asteroid, and there is no cause for panic, as scientists are well-prepared to evaluate any risks as they arise.

Also Read: UN Agencies track 2024 YR4 asteroid as 2032 collision risk remains low

Why the Uncertainty Surrounding 2024 YR4's Potential Impact?

2024 YR4 is the only known asteroid with an impact probability exceeding 1%, making it the most significant space threat in decades.

Although the asteroid is expected to pass Earth, its precise impact remains uncertain. Rankin explains that this uncertainty is common when a new asteroid like 2024 YR4 is discovered, as some aspects of its orbit can be confirmed with greater precision than others. While the plane of its orbit can be determined, its exact position along that plane is harder to pinpoint. This creates an uncertainty zone, known as the 'line of variation', says Rankin

As tracking data improves, this uncertainty will be adjusted, which may occasionally increase the odds of a potential impact. However, the most likely outcome is that the asteroid will safely miss Earth. This assessment will continue to evolve as astronomers gather more data and refine their calculations.

Currently, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth, making it difficult to track. Rankin and his team will continue observing it using 8-meter telescopes throughout February 2025 at the Catalina Sky Survey.

Additionally, scientific teams around the world are reviewing archival data from 2016, when the asteroid was last visible.

"If any of them find it, we'll be able to confirm or rule out the possibility of an impact in 2032," Rankin told Space.com. "If not, we should have a clearer understanding by 2028 when the asteroid becomes visible again."