What Ebrahim Raisi's death means for Iran's political future?

The holding of new elections, which is mandated within 50 days of Raisi's death, poses a significant challenge for the regime at a time when its public legitimacy is at its lowest.

The Islamic Republic of Iran suffered the loss of its president Ebrahim Raisi in a chopper crash this week as the nation grappled with one of the most trying times in history in terms of political and economic crisis.

As a well-known member of the political elite, Raisi had significant influence on Iran's internal policy. He played a key role in the country's recent efforts to firm up ties with its regional competitors. What effect would his departure have on the domestic matters for the nation, considering the loss of his considerable influence, and how will it affect the Iran's ties with other countries in the region?

Who steps in as president?

As the final judge of internal and international matters in the Islamic Republic, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appointed Mohammad Mokhber as the interim president on Monday.

But the country must, by law, hold elections within the next 50 days. On Monday, Iranian state news IRNA said Iran’s presidential elections will take place on June 28. Candidates can register from May 30 to June 3, and campaigning will run from June 12 until the morning of June 27, it added.

Experts, however, predict low voter turnout in a hurriedly done election. In March, Iran saw the lowest voter participation since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979, despite attempts by the administration to mobilise supporters before to the election.

Hardline politicians predominated in the ballot, which was for seats in the Majles, the parliament, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which chooses the Supreme Leader.

Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, a London think tank, described Mokhber as "another administrator", referring to him as lesser known than Raisi, to CNN's Becky Anderson. "He is close to the IRGC, close to the levers of power, and that he will probably promote a business-as-usual plan in the coming days," CNN reported quoting Vakil.

What will it mean for neighbours? 

During his term, Raisi prioritised the Middle East as the primary focus of the nation's foreign policy. This was a drift from what his predecessor Hassan Rouhani had followed, which was fortifying ties with European states and normalising relations with other Western countries. For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia had five rounds of talks in Iraq in Raisi's regime, which resulted in the historic normalisation of ties between the two countries in early 2023, according to The Conversation.

Iran has just started holding serious talks with Egypt and Jordan, once more with Iraq's assistance. These programmes provided an opportunity to put an end to the sectarian hostilities that have long dominated the area and provide a foundation for future collaboration. During Raisi's rule, Iran also strengthened its ties with China and Russia, indicating a long-term, strategic shift to the East approved by the Supreme Leader.

Implications of Raisi's death

Following Raisi's passing, there have been concerns regarding the ultimate successor to 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the position of supreme power in Iran.

During Raisi's rule, the Iranian religious elite made significant investments in him because they saw him as a possible Khamenei successor. He had allegedly been prepared to become the Supreme Leader, according to observers, reported CNN.

The late president suppressed the major demonstrations in 2022 that aimed to oppose oppressive regulations like the mandatory hijab and defended some of the regime's most extreme policies.

What effect will it have on Iran's diplomatic ties?
Under Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian's leadership, Iran's ties with its Arab neighbours improved, and with China's support, relations with Saudi Arabia, a longstanding adversary, were normalised. However, they also witnessed the Islamic Republic launch its first major direct attack on Israel following an alleged Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria. Israel responded with an extraordinary strike as a result, exposing the two countries' covert conflict.

Experts predict that Raisi's passing won't have an effect on the regime's foreign policy, which is essentially the Supreme Leader's purview, the CNN report added.

(with inputs from media reports)