Indian govt think-tank takes lead in breaking stalemate between warring parties in Myanmar

The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that there is not only wide-scale violence and instability

An Indian government-sponsored think-tank is hosting a gathering of a large number of experts and stakeholders to meet in New Delhi on Tuesday to find a solution to the Myanmar crisis.

The think-tank, Indian Council of World Affairs, is providing the platform for a dialogue between the contending parties of Myanmar to reach an agreement in the current stalemate in the country.

For the past two years, the military junta has unleashed a brutal crackdown on the democratic forces which are being led by the National Unity Government (NUG), composed of members of the erstwhile government and the ruling party.

The insurgent groups that were fighting the army in Myanmar for years have now rallied behind the democratic forces who are also being supported by their own armed groups.

Deteriorating situation 

The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that there is not only wide-scale violence and instability but also no dialogue or contact between the generals and those opposing the army in the country.

The focus of the outside world was drawn to Myanmar after the April 11 incident, when an air strike by the Myanmar army on a crowd in a village bordering the Indian North-eastern state of Mizoram, killed 170 people, including women and children.

The Myanmar army justified the action by saying it was an attack on terrorists who were waging a war against the State.

But the international community deplored the army and strong condemnations poured in from the United Nations, United States, European Union, Japan and several other countries.

There was also a demand for stopping the supply of aviation fuel and other military assistance to the army.

India, which had been dealing with the influx of refugees from Myanmar into Mizoram and Manipur in recent months, said it was “disturbed” by the incident and called for all parties to resolve their differences through dialogue.

The Indian statement was a disappointment for the Myanmar opposition and the democratic forces as they expected a much stronger response from Delhi and wanted it to cut off all aid and support to the Myanmar army.

Aligned interests

India’s policy towards Myanmar has been dictated by its economic, security and strategic interests.

Myanmar plays a key role in India’s ‘Act East Policy’—which allows Delhi access to the huge Southeast Asian market.

Besides India has invested billions of dollars in connectivity infrastructure and other projects in Myanmar.

Moreover, while the Myanmar army needs India as an option against China—the country’s main investor and backer, New Delhi, also needs the army’s support to safeguard its economic and strategic interest in the country.

Plus, India needs the army’s help to deal with the insurgent groups from its Northeastern states who often take shelter in Myanmar and operate against Indian interests from the neighbouring country.

Most importantly, unlike the Western countries, India is opposed to the imposition of sanctions to change a country’s behaviour.

The Indian government has always preferred dialogue as a viable option for engagement and resolving differences.

Therefore, despite the criticism and pressure from different quarters, India has struck a fine balance of engaging both with the army—who are virtually in power and the democratic opposition in Myanmar.

Track 1.5 dialogue

Tuesday's meeting is part of the Track 1.5 Dialogue that was first held in Thailand, where India and other countries had participated.

This meeting in Delhi will be its second edition.

A Track 1.5 Dialogue is a semi-official initiative that provides a forum for dialogue among contending parties to find a resolution to a crisis.

But the initiative also has the blessings of the government.

Invitations have gone out to all the stakeholders that include not only officials from the current military administration but also senior members of the previous government and opposition in Myanmar plus the neighbouring countries and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Think-tank members and experts from China, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India are also expected to be present for Tuesday’s brainstorming session which expects to find an agreement that can end the current crisis in Myanmar.

The all-powerful army of Myanmar and the democratic forces have mostly had an uneasy relationship in the country.

The crisis

The current crisis began when the army removed the elected government in a coup in February 2021 and took the reins of power to run the country in its own hands.

In the November elections of 2020, Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party had won an overwhelming majority over the army proxies and formed a government.

The Myanmar army, locally known as the Tatmadaw, became apprehensive that Suu Kyi’s party will use its overwhelming majority in parliament to change the country’s Constitution and bar the army from participating in politics.

This prompted the Tatmadaw, under the leadership of the army chief General Min Aung Hlaing, the army chief, to dismiss the elected government and put Suu Kyi and other senior members of her party under arrest.

The air strike by the Myanmar army is not an isolated incident but part of its clean-up drive to decimate and isolate the opposition in the country before the Tatmadaw can hold elections in the country.

The army generals have realised that without coming back to power through an election it will be difficult for them to be acknowledged by the outside world as the legitimate government of Myanmar.

But given the situation in Myanmar, most observers doubt whether such an election can be held as the army, despite its brutal crackdown on the opposition, is not in control of most parts of the country.

A dialogue, like the one being held in Delhi, that could pave the way for an engagement between the army and the opposition, may therefore be a way out of the present stalemate in Myanmar.