India’s GDP grew by 6.5 percent in FY25, and key economic indicators appear robust, according to data from the National Statistics Office. Yet, consumer sentiment surveys from the RBI suggest income concerns and weak urban demand—highlighting a growing disconnect
Net indirect taxes have had an unforeseen level of impact on GDP, pushing it higher than market expectation. Among other factors giving it a boost were high government investment spending and a contraction in imports. Given the level of uncertainty arising from global factors, RBI is unlikely to let the GDP trend arrest the ongoing monetary loosening cycle.
The share of industry in GVA has come down from 33.04 percent back in 2009-10 to an estimated 30.58 percent in 2024-25. There does seem to be something in all the talk about premature deindustrialisation
India’s GDP grew 6.2% YoY in Q3 FY25, with growth expected to accelerate further in Q4. Strong private consumption and policy support are driving momentum despite global uncertainties
Agricultural growth and higher government consumption spending means private consumption will support growth this fiscal. However, weak urban demand and elevated food inflation will limit its overall impact, leading to a slowdown in the pace of economic momentum. RBI may cut interest rates only towards end of the financial year
Investment driven by public sector capex remains the dominant source of growth. Close to half of the headline real GDP growth is coming from growth in gross capital formation
The most important thing to look for is whether there has been an improvement in private consumption
As much as 4.6 percentage points out of the 7.6 percent growth in the September quarter can be put down to ‘’discrepancies’’
The resilient growth conditions provide monetary policy space to remain focused on containing inflation. We expect the RBI to remain on a prolonged pause till December 2023
The unexpected surge in the GDP numbers is due to a better-than-expected performance in the last quarter of the fiscal, and boosted by services, exports, and agriculture.
The story on the demand side for the September quarter is the huge drag on GDP from the external sector, thanks to high crude oil and commodity prices
Fuel prices remained high during the quarter and the trade deficit was elevated, so net exports are likely to continue to be a big drag
GDP grew 8.7 percent in 2021-22, but slowed to 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter. This slowdown comes at a time when people are battling persistently high cost of living with growing prices of both essentials and aspirationals
The rise in per capita in the current year is lower than what was estimated before the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus struck. The decline in the current prices is small but when it is measured in constant 2011-12 prices, the dent is significant.
While growth is expected to pick up pace, the government must continue measures to stimulate demand through targeted cash transfers and improve business conditions on a continuous basis
The latest quarterly GDP statistics vindicates the Monetary Policy Committee stance on August 6 to stay accommodative until growth impulses are nurtured to ensure a durable economic recovery
We must remain mindful of the uneven and divergent nature of recovery along with below-the-radar scarring in the informal economy not being adequately captured in headline numbers that could impact the recovery and normalisation cycle
Contrary to hopes of pent-up demand spurring consumption, output growth in the manufacturing sector slowed in August
The tax revenue figures show that some sections of society and larger companies seem to be doing better than even before the pandemic
Private consumption is still 88.1 per cent of what it was two years ago
In today’s edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: Economic recovery tracker, June quarter GDP, COVID-19 vaccination, rise in electricity prices, Page Industries, Jyothy Labs and more
RBI predicts growth in April-June 2021 will be 21.4 per cent after a contraction of 24.4 per cent in April-June 2020. That means GDP will still be lower than it was two years ago
Addressing the media after the release of the GDP numbers, the CEA also said that giving any actual numbers for economic forecast would not be prudent as the pandemic is evolving and the economic trajectory of the country totally depends on the severity of the pandemic.
For this financial year, the government had initially pegged the fiscal deficit at Rs 7.96 lakh crore or 3.5 per cent of the GDP in the budget presented in February 2020.
The Centre will release India GDP data for Q4FY21 and full-year FY21 later today. Find out what to look for