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  • The yawning gap between GDP data and consumer sentiment

    India’s GDP grew by 6.5 percent in FY25, and key economic indicators appear robust, according to data from the National Statistics Office. Yet, consumer sentiment surveys from the RBI suggest income concerns and weak urban demand—highlighting a growing disconnect

  • Pace of Q4 growth surprises, but RBI will stick to monetary easing

    Pace of Q4 growth surprises, but RBI will stick to monetary easing

    Net indirect taxes have had an unforeseen level of impact on GDP, pushing it higher than market expectation. Among other factors giving it a boost were high government investment spending and a contraction in imports. Given the level of uncertainty arising from global factors, RBI is unlikely to let the GDP trend arrest the ongoing monetary loosening cycle.

  • Manufacturing's share in economy in 2024-25 at same level as 18 years ago

    Manufacturing's share in economy in 2024-25 at same level as 18 years ago

    The share of industry in GVA has come down from 33.04 percent back in 2009-10 to an estimated 30.58 percent in 2024-25. There does seem to be something in all the talk about premature deindustrialisation

  • India’s GDP growth accelerates to 6.2 percent in Q3 FY25, poised for stronger Q4

    India’s GDP growth accelerates to 6.2 percent in Q3 FY25, poised for stronger Q4

    India’s GDP grew 6.2% YoY in Q3 FY25, with growth expected to accelerate further in Q4. Strong private consumption and policy support are driving momentum despite global uncertainties

  • GDP growth and inflation will trend downwards in FY25

    GDP growth and inflation will trend downwards in FY25

    Agricultural growth and higher government consumption spending means private consumption will support growth this fiscal. However, weak urban demand and elevated food inflation will limit its overall impact, leading to a slowdown in the pace of economic momentum. RBI may cut interest rates only towards end of the financial year

  • GDP data: A positive growth surprise, powered by investment even as consumption lags

    GDP data: A positive growth surprise, powered by investment even as consumption lags

    Investment driven by public sector capex remains the dominant source of growth. Close to half of the headline real GDP growth is coming from growth in gross capital formation

  • What to look for in the Q3 GDP numbers

    What to look for in the Q3 GDP numbers

    The most important thing to look for is whether there has been an improvement in private consumption 

  • Chart of the Day | Take the expenditure side of quarterly GDP data with spadefuls of salt

    Chart of the Day | Take the expenditure side of quarterly GDP data with spadefuls of salt

    As much as 4.6 percentage points out of the 7.6 percent growth in the September quarter can be put down to ‘’discrepancies’’ 

  • Q4 GDP: Robust growth to keep rate cuts at bay

    Q4 GDP: Robust growth to keep rate cuts at bay

    The resilient growth conditions provide monetary policy space to remain focused on containing inflation. We expect the RBI to remain on a prolonged pause till December 2023 

  • GDP expands 6.1% in Q4: Read top brokerages views on the road ahead

    GDP expands 6.1% in Q4: Read top brokerages views on the road ahead

    The unexpected surge in the GDP numbers is due to a better-than-expected performance in the last quarter of the fiscal, and boosted by services, exports, and agriculture.

  • Q2 GDP: Rebound in contact-intensive services boosts growth

    Q2 GDP: Rebound in contact-intensive services boosts growth

    The story on the demand side for the September quarter is the huge drag on GDP from the external sector, thanks to high crude oil and commodity prices 

  • What Q2 GDP will tell us about the structure of Indian economy

    What Q2 GDP will tell us about the structure of Indian economy

    Fuel prices remained high during the quarter and the trade deficit was elevated, so net exports are likely to continue to be a big drag 

  • GDP | Economy in slowdown mode. Monsoon rains critical to quick revival

    GDP | Economy in slowdown mode. Monsoon rains critical to quick revival

    GDP grew 8.7 percent in 2021-22, but slowed to 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter. This slowdown comes at a time when people are battling persistently high cost of living with growing prices of both essentials and aspirationals 

  • Estimates of per capita income pruned, consumption expenditure raised

    Estimates of per capita income pruned, consumption expenditure raised

    The rise in per capita in the current year is lower than what was estimated before the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus struck. The decline in the current prices is small but when it is measured in constant 2011-12 prices, the dent is significant.

  • India’s economy is on a bumpy road to recovery

    India’s economy is on a bumpy road to recovery

    While growth is expected to pick up pace, the government must continue measures to stimulate demand through targeted cash transfers and improve business conditions on a continuous basis 

  • Q1 GDP signals weaker sequential growth momentum

    Q1 GDP signals weaker sequential growth momentum

    The latest quarterly GDP statistics vindicates the Monetary Policy Committee stance on August 6 to stay accommodative until growth impulses are nurtured to ensure a durable economic recovery 

  • Q1 GDP | Divergent and uneven underlying growth will need nurturing

    Q1 GDP | Divergent and uneven underlying growth will need nurturing

    We must remain mindful of the uneven and divergent nature of recovery along with below-the-radar scarring in the informal economy not being adequately captured in headline numbers that could impact the recovery and normalisation cycle 

  • Manufacturing activity lost momentum in August, shows PMI

    Manufacturing activity lost momentum in August, shows PMI

    Contrary to hopes of pent-up demand spurring consumption, output growth in the manufacturing sector slowed in August 

  • Central government finances now in better shape than before the pandemic

    Central government finances now in better shape than before the pandemic

    The tax revenue figures show that some sections of society and larger companies seem to be doing better than even before the pandemic

  • GDP in April-June 2021 still well below that of April-June 2019

    GDP in April-June 2021 still well below that of April-June 2019

    Private consumption is still 88.1 per cent of what it was two years ago 

  • Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Spurt in electricity prices: no easy solutions

    Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Spurt in electricity prices: no easy solutions

    In today’s edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: Economic recovery tracker, June quarter GDP, COVID-19 vaccination, rise in electricity prices, Page Industries, Jyothy Labs and more

  • What to look for in the Q1 GDP numbers

    What to look for in the Q1 GDP numbers

    RBI predicts growth in April-June 2021 will be 21.4 per cent after a contraction of 24.4 per cent in April-June 2020. That means GDP will still be lower than it was two years ago

  • GDP data | Double-digit growth for FY22 uncertain, overall impact of 2nd wave may not be large: CEA

    GDP data | Double-digit growth for FY22 uncertain, overall impact of 2nd wave may not be large: CEA

    Addressing the media after the release of the GDP numbers, the CEA also said that giving any actual numbers for economic forecast would not be prudent as the pandemic is evolving and the economic trajectory of the country totally depends on the severity of the pandemic.

  • Fiscal deficit for 2020-21 at 9.3% of GDP: CGA data

    Fiscal deficit for 2020-21 at 9.3% of GDP: CGA data

    For this financial year, the government had initially pegged the fiscal deficit at Rs 7.96 lakh crore or 3.5 per cent of the GDP in the budget presented in February 2020.

  • India GDP data: Key things to watch out for in FY21 GDP estimates to be released today

    India GDP data: Key things to watch out for in FY21 GDP estimates to be released today

    The Centre will release India GDP data for Q4FY21 and full-year FY21 later today. Find out what to look for

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