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This is because the weight of food in the CPI basket is likely to come down; therefore, the RBI may continue to target headline inflation, with a mandate of keeping the rate at 4 percent along with a tolerance band of 2 percentage points on either side. The current framework is valid until March 2026.
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Edible oils, rice, flours and vegetables have recorded sharp increase in the prices, the report said
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RBI’s model is undergirded by two key assumptions. It accurately measures inflation expectations which, in turn, influence wage adjustments. The central bank’s measure of inflation expectations is out of sync with reality, undermining the accuracy of its approach. Keeping rates high anticipating that expectations will rise seems too harsh on growth and employment
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None of the 22 major states clocked rates that touched or fell below the RBI's medium-term target for consumer price index-based inflation of 4 percent
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Prospects for good rabi output to provide further impetus for FY26, say economist. India's agriculture growth declined to 1.4 percent in FY24
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Pulses inflation has remained in double digits for fifteen straight months
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Moderate core inflation and positive monsoon progress to keep inflation contained, the ministry said
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India’s telecom tariffs were raised 10-27 percent by three private telcos in July, after a period of three years. Experts say that telecom tariff hikes will raise FY25 inflation by 10-15 bps
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Inflation expectations are at the highest level in over a year, and 90 percent households expect prices to rise. Over two-thirds expect them to rise faster than the current rate.
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These comments come at a time when India’s retail inflation rose to four-month high of 5.08 percent in June compared with 4.75 percent in the previous month as food inflation galloped to 9.4 percent due to a surge in prices of vegetables.
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At 5.9%, average inflation in the five poorest states in the country, between January 2022 and June 2024, was higher than 5.78% logged by the five richest states in per capita terms
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Food inflation remains above 8% for eighth consecutive month
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As political rhetoric around Inflation increases, Moneycontrol takes stock of how inflation has fared in India over the years and versus globally.
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The upcoming monsoon season is exceedingly important in terms of easing food prices given that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cannot do much to influence food supply management, Emkay Global's Madhavi Arora points out.
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Food inflation rose 8.7 percent in April, compared with a 8.52 percent rise in the previous month
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In its monthly review, the department of economic affairs has warned against weather shocks, geopolitical tensions and their effect on oil prices
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Consumer prices in the 20-nation single currency area rose 2.6 percent in February from a year earlier, down from a 2.8-percent rise in January, the EU's statistics agency said.
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India's headline retail inflation, which has remained above target for nearly four-and-a-half years, cooled to a three-month low of 5.1 percent in January. However, the impact of price changes has not been uniform across all income classes.
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The wholesale food inflation cooled down to 3.79 percent last month compared to 5.39 percent in December 2023.
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Sitharaman added that subsidised essentials in the from of Bharat Atta, Bharat Dal among others have helped cool down prices
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Friday's government report showed that prices rose just 0.2% from November to December, a pace consistent with pre-pandemic levels and barely above the Fed's 2% annual target. Measured from a year earlier, prices increased 2.6%.
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According to CRISIL Market Intelligence & Analytics, while thali prices were down sequentially in December, a plate of vegetarian food was 12 percent more expensive compared to a year ago.
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The recent drop in crude prices and continued moderation in core inflation are likely to control inflationary pressures, the ministry said in its monthly economic report for October
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Lower prices and ample stockpiles have helped make India one of the top shippers globally over the past decade, recently accounting for almost 40 percent of the total
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Essential items such as food and fuel occupy a greater share in the consumption basket of lower income classes
