Thali Price Index: Cooking at home gets 3-5% cheaper as veggies, chicken cost less

The latest thali prices come just days before the statistics ministry releases headline retail inflation data for December on January 12.

Cooking food at home got cheaper in December, thanks to cooling vegetable prices, with CRISIL Market Intelligence & Analytics estimating that the cost of a vegetarian thali eased 3 percent month-on-month, while a plate of non-vegetarian food now costs 5 percent less.

"The easing was due to a 14 percent and 3 percent on-month decrease in prices of onion and tomato, respectively, with the festive season coming to an end," CRISIL Analysts said in a note this week.

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The cost of a non-veg thali fell by a greater margin because of a 5-7 percent sequential decline in the price of chicken, which makes up half the cost.

However, at Rs 29.7, a vegetarian thali in December 2023 was 12 percent more expensive when compared to the cost a year ago because of a sharp spike in vegetable prices. With a 24 percent on-year surge in prices, pulses too added to the cost.

The cost of making a vegetarian plate of food in December 2022, as per CRISIL, was Rs 26.6.

While vegetarians suffered from the rising vegetable prices in 2023, non-vegetarians had some reason to celebrate as the cost of a non-veg thali was down 4 percent year-on-year last month to Rs 57.6, driven by a 15 percent slump in chicken prices due to higher production.

CRISIL's calculations assume a veg thali comprising roti, vegetables (onion, tomato, and potato), rice, dal, curd, and salad. A non-veg thali is the same as a veg thali, but with chicken replacing dal. The amount of each item in the thali is not changed depending on how prices of food items move in the market.

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The latest thali prices come just ahead of the statistics ministry releasing the headline retail inflation data for December on January 12, with economists predicting inflation rose closer to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2-6 percent tolerance range from 5.55 percent in November.

In a separate note published on January 9, CRISIL economists said that while 'inflation anxiety' decreased over the course of 2023, it was higher compared to 2018-2021, as per Google Trends data.

Using the Google Trends index based on searches for 'inflation', which is found to be strongly correlated with households' inflation expectations as per the RBI's own survey, CRISIL economists said that spike in search interest for onion and tomato prices has moderated, which suggested "anxiety is cooling off".

"Easing inflation anxiety about TOP (tomato, onion, potato) prices and cooling of non-food inflation has brought some relief at the end of the calendar year. But edgy vegetable prices, elevated food-grain inflation and the now-recurring weather worries are keeping inflation concerns on the boil. The repeated flare-ups are a reminder that as long as food prices remain high and volatile, they will continue to influence headline inflation and, consequently, monetary policy," they noted.