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The US dollar is trading near two-year lows. Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co., expect further weakness in the US currency due to likely interest-rate cuts, slowing economic growth, and ongoing fiscal and trade policy uncertainty.
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Emerging currencies are rebounding after suffering their worst quarterly drop since September 2022 in the final months of 2024 as traders priced expectations of a widespread trade war and a more hawkish Federal Reserve amid inflationary pressure in the US.
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The firm, with about 254 billion Swiss francs ($288 billion) of assets under management, is favoring Turkey, Argentina and India as it looks for markets with robust domestic economic development and where interest rate cuts are expected.
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Market watchers see the possibility of funds flowing into India and Japan while investors assess Trump’s anti-China stance, with the president-elect earlier having threatened to put tariffs of as much as 60% on Chinese goods.
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The MSCI China Index is up more than 30% from recent lows after China's recent measures to revive growth, helped by low valuations.
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The study is based on the views of 142 chief investment officers, heads of asset classes, and senior portfolio strategists from 85 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks, collectively managing approximately $21 trillion in assets.
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South Korea will stay in the 24-member MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the firm said in its annual market classification announcement Thursday. The decision was widely expected after MSCI earlier this month said South Korea still faced nine market accessibility issues, flagging concerns similar to 2022’s review.
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The opening on May 18 comes just weeks after the Cupertino, California-based company opened its first Apple stores in India - Mumbai and Delhi.
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The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF, which invests in stocks across the developing world, but not those in the world’s second-biggest economy, received inflows of $148 million last week.
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In an interview with CNBC TV-18, the Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team and Professor Emeritus at NYU’s School of Business also added that while India's fiscal policy “could be better, it is okay.”
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Gulf stocks diverged when their emerging-market peers began to take off in November, with the MSCI Emerging-Market Index rising 20% as of Monday. The MSCI GCC Countries Combined Index lost 10% over the same period.
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It’s a combination of two peaks. One, in inflation: Developing nations from India to Brazil are reporting declines in consumer-price growth, early victories in a war that’s gone on for two years. Two, monetary tightening: From the US to UK and Europe, wagers on rate hikes that kept surging until last month are now moderating.
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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and the independent central bank may be all that prevents this unflattering label from sticking.
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Barely recovering from a nearly two-year bear run, positive sentiment in emerging market currencies has already been soured by higher U.S. Treasury yields.
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Central banks in emerging market economies have been bracing for this for months by hiking their benchmark interest rates. But the actual moment when the Fed delivers half-point rate increases and rapid balance sheet reduction still matters.
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The Bank of America survey of global fund managers for November shows that 65 percent of fund managers believe that boom conditions will prevail in the global economy over the next 12 months, with above-trend growth and above-trend inflation
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The set of four new non-tradable FX indexes would track EMs that have over the past couple of decades seen increased global investment inflows, growing proportion of government debt issuance, and a significant jump in transaction volumes in FX.
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According to the global financial services major, emerging markets are under pressure as investors re-assess the risks amid monetary policy normalisation in developed markets, trade protectionism and China's economic slowdown.
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mark Matthews of Bank Julius Baer & Co spoke about the latest happenings in the global markets.
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In a CNBC-TV18 interview, Adrian Mowat, MD & Chief EM Strategist, JP Morgan shared his outlook on the market. He also spoke about how the Indian economy has fared in three years of Modi’s rule.
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Since the start of this year, the rupee has had a steady appreciation in line with other emerging market currencies, Kotak Institutional Equities said in a research note.
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Globally, the assets under management of the hedge fund industry stood at an all-time high of USD 3.018 trillion and investors are forecasting a 3.5 percent increase in new inflows during 2017.
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The adoption of the GST could
help raise India's medium-term GDP growth to over eight per
cent and create a single national market for enhancing the
efficiency of the movement of goods and services, the IMF said
today.
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It seems the glory days are back for the dollar. The greenback rose to a three week high on Monday all thanks to US President‘s promise to cut taxes to encourage corporate profits and investments. The dollar has gained strength in the past few months and the dollar index has breached the 100 point mark.
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Nonresident investors cut inflows to emerging market assets to USD 28 billion in 2016, with debt portfolios recording substantial outflows, the Institute for International Finance said.
