The Emerging Market Strategist said trade frictions, visa curbs, and costly valuations as near-term drags for India, while Brazil and China ride policy support, tech strength, and capital flows.
US trade tensions, visa setbacks, shaky earnings, and shifting FII flows—can India’s growth story stay intact? Adrian Mowat, one of EM’s most closely followed strategists, dissects the big forces that could make or break India’s investment appeal.
Adrian Mowat said several active fund managers who were Overweight on India may be trimming positions in order to rotate money into China.
Market veteran Adrian Mowat explained, “I think a lot of institutional investors have decided to sidestep Adani, and it hasn't been sitting in in people's portfolios. That was primarily because the valuations looked high”.
Veteran EM strategist said that Indian will continue to be an attractive investment destination
Not everyone is bullish on India when it comes to investing in stocks, says Emerging Markets Equity Strategist Adrian Mowat. He says he finds it difficult to recommend stocks in India as the outperformance has led to overvaluation
Adrian Mowat, emerging equity markets strategist, talks about the failure of SVB and fear of contagion. He also shares his expectations from the US Federal Reserve, especially since the street is getting more and more divided about whether the US central bank will opt for a smaller rate hike or even go for a pause in the wake of the latest bank collapse. Also catch his thoughts on India!
"When I look at Indian equities, they have proved to be quite resilient. Typically, one would expect Indian equities to underperform with the oil prices where they are today," the emerging equity market strategist said.
The first budget after a general election should see the most fiscal discipline because the political cost is the lowest, he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
According to Mowat, there has been a profound change in central bank policies around the world.
Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan is underweight on IT, pharma and consumer staples due to expensive valuations. He likes private players in the financial space
The June quarter earnings story does not offer confidence and the whole bull market scenario looks a bit shaky at current levels, given the fact that benchmark indices are already trading above their long-term averages.
The valuation of the Indian market is at the top band as there is a lot of optimism which is priced in the Indian market.
Adrian Mowat of JPMorgan believes that the market could go up if the earnings growth catches up. He sees the Nifty’s target of 10,500 in a bull case scenario, but also highlights the inconsistency on macroeconomic data front.
India remains the highest net overweight market in emerging markets.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Mowat said that the last two quarters were tough for India due to demonetisation and the US election outcome but a pro-business and pro-reform government will keep confidence high in marke
Deepak Parekh, Chairman, HDFC is disappointed that there was nothing on corporate tax, except a proposal to cut corporate tax rate for MSMEs (Micro Small and Medium Enterprises) having revenues less than Rs 50 crore to 25 percent.
There is going to be a lot of volitility in the global markets if Hillary Clinton loses the elections, he says. This is due to the vacuum of information until more clarity on the policies he employs in US emerges.
Strengthening dollar and rising oil prices are the global headwinds for EMs, says Adrian Mowat, Chief EM & Asian Equity Strategist at JP Morgan.
Mixo Das of Nomura says all eyes are on the September 21 Federal Reserve/Bank of Japan meetings.
Adrian Mowat OF JP Morgan said that China, which has been a laggard, is beginning to outperform. He believes that there will be inflows into emerging markets in general.
In case of India, earnings per share revisions have turned from negative to flat, Mowat says, adding earnings surprises continue to be driven by margin dynamics.
JP Morgan has an overweight stance on India with expectations of double digit returns as the index moves towards 9,000 level. Strong earnings are expected in 2017, Adrian Mowat of JP Morgan says.
CLSA‘s Chris Woods sees emerging markets gaining from more monetary easing by central banks in a bid to counter possible volatility arising from the Brexit.
Adrian Mowat, Chief EM & Asian Equity Strategist, JPMorgan Chase, says if you look at some of the early indicators for corporate capex, such as truck sales, they are now turning around and looking very encouraging. However, data aggregator CMIE cautions that all is not well with the Indian business environment.