Uttar Pradesh bypolls: BSP drawing blank signals change in the state's political landscape?

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While all eyes were on the Assembly election results in Haryana and Maharashtra on October 24, the bypoll results in Uttar Pradesh signalled a shift in the state’s political landscape.

By-elections were held in 11 Assembly constituencies of Uttar Pradesh. Voting happened on October 21, along with the state polls in Haryana and Maharashtra. Counting of votes happened on October 24.

The 11 Assembly constituencies were: Gangoh, Rampur, Islas, Lucknow Cantonment, Govindnagar, Manikpur, Pratapgarh, Zaidpur, Jalalpur, Balha and Ghosi.

The state’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won seven seats. BJP’s ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) won one seat.

However, what shifted the political setting in the state was Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) winning three seats and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) drawing a blank.

BSP finished runner-up in two seats, came third in three and fourth in five seats. The party finished fifth in one seat – Pratapgarh. There, it secured lesser votes than Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM).

In fact, the party won fewer votes than Congress in as many as six constituencies. This assumes significance as political observers believe Congress’ voter base has evaporated substantially in the state.

BSP lost the Jalalpur seat to SP. In Zaidpur, which SP wrested from BJP, BSP finished fourth. In this seat reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC), BSP’s vote share plummeted from 18.9 percent votes in 2017 to 8.2 percent.

SP’s vote share increased in five constituencies, largely at the expense of the BSP. Except for Iglas and Manikpur, BSP’s vote share fell in the other nine constituencies in comparison to the 2017 state polls.

In September too, BSP’s vote share fell in the Hamirpur Assembly bypolls. There too, BSP had finished behind BJP and SP.

Vying for the Opposition space

Citing lack of vote transfer from the SP to her party during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Mayawati had split the ‘Mahagathbandhan’. For these bypolls, BSP fielded candidates in all 11 constituencies and did not partner any other party.

These developments come at a time when SP and BSP are manoeuvring to become the main Opposition party in UP with eyes on the 2022 Assembly election.

In 2017, BJP had stormed to power by winning 312 of the 403 Assembly seats for which elections were held. The UP Assembly also has one nominated member.

SP was reduced to 47 seats. BSP finished third with 19 seats. Apna Dal (Sonelal) and the Indian National Congress had won nine and seven seats, respectively.

BJP secured around 40 percent of the votes. SP and BSP had a vote share of 22 percent and 22.4 percent, respectively. While Congress’ tally could not reach double digits, it had secured 6.3 percent of the votes.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, SP, BSP and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had contested in an alliance. While BSP bagged 10 parliamentary seats in the state, SP won five. RLD failed to win a single seat. BJP and its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) won 62 and two seats, respectively.