Should India be worried about 'Nato's eastward expansion'?

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng warned that the Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific region could face a situation similar to Ukraine's. (REUTERS/ File photo)

China has finally broken its silence on the Russian-Ukraine war, in a way some would categorise as obtuse.

Over two weeks since the carnage in Europe, a top Chinese foreign ministry official has preferred to draw parallels between “the Nato strategy of eastward expansion in Europe” and the creation of `small blocs’ and “group confrontation” in the Indo-Pacific, the region that China calls Asia-Pacific.

It came to the point in a roundabout way. Far from openly taking sides, in the European standoff, China has used the occasion to hand out oblique threats to its immediate and not-so-near neighbours.

``The Ukraine crisis provides a mirror for us to observe the situation in the Asia-Pacific. We cannot but ask, how can we prevent a crisis like this from happening in the Asia-Pacific?” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng – a former Chinese ambassador to India between 2014 to 2016 - said.

“The Asia-Pacific now faces two opposite choices: should we build an open and inclusive family for win-win cooperation or go for small blocks based on the Cold War mentality and group confrontation?” Le said in remarks in English posted on the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s website.

Also read: Joe Biden's Indo-Pacific strategy and its impact on India

The highly regarded Chinese mandarin’s statements should be considered very significant. Le is member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and vice-minister of foreign affairs, seen widely as one of the rising stars of the Chinese foreign policy establishment.

Most Indian experts agree that far from taking a nuanced position on the bloodletting in Ukraine, the Chinese official was using the occasion to hand out threats and create a situation of discomfort when none existed. Moneycontrol talked to three leading former Indian diplomats, who know China very well.

Kanwal Sibal, former foreign secretary, India

'The Chinese statement is no policy statement; issued with keeping in mind, the world focus on Russia-Ukraine'

Do you think forming a larger, regional group will benefit India, more than it being part of smaller groups such as Quad?

I don’t think so. India is strongly placed in the Quad and the way I see it, top Chinese diplomat Le Yucheng, is saying all this with the Russia-Ukraine tussle in the background. It is by no chance a policy statement. That China feels that way is its own calculation. India must do what is best in its interest.

Which are the smaller groups that are the most beneficial to India and in what specific ways?

This is not the first time that China has made statements like these. I have heard them taking positions like these before. They are repeating it now that the war in Europe is topical.

Why is China talking of forming a larger regional group now? Is there a real fear of aggression from the West?

There is genuine fear in China of the West. I have heard it myself (from their diplomats). China is far more integrated into the global economic system, which is controlled in a large measure by the US. They have reasons to worry, hence the economic sanctions against Russia are seen as a threat. There can be no doubt about it.

Is NATO's eastward expansion a real threat to countries such as India, or a bogey to increase China and Russia's influence in the region?

India is a long way away from Nato’s eastward expansion. It was Russia, which has used the bogey to launch an attack on Ukraine and naturally, China as a friend of Russia is worried, which is also understandable.

Which countries are likely to share China's vision of one larger group instead of the smaller blocs, and how likely are they to act on that and why?

Come to think of it, China has no allies except Pakistan and a couple of countries with which it shares borders. So, frankly there cannot be a big grouping headed by China. (In the 2019 Pew survey, the nations with the most positive view of China were Russia, Nigeria, and Israel)

Ashok Kantha, ex-ambassador to China and high commissioner to Sri Lanka

'Chinese diplomat’s attempt to equate Europe and Indo-Pacific unfortunate'

Do you think forming a larger, regional group will benefit India, more than it being part of smaller groups such as Quad, as this top Chinese official was quoted as saying.

I don’t think so. India is part of many groups, big and small. It is part of the ASEAN, which is a large group. It is also part of BRICS, which is a relatively smaller group. I believe the Chinese diplomat’s attempt to equate the current European situation with the Indo-Pacific is rather unfortunate.

Which are the smaller groups that are the most beneficial to India and in what specific ways?

The Chinese official Le Yucheng has not named India but there is a reference to Quad, which is highly avoidable. He has not referred to India, but there is no comparison in the situations in Europe and this part of the world. Quad is not a security alliance, so there is no need to refer to it in military terms, as he has done. There is no parallel between the ongoing Russia-Ukraine standoff and the Indo-Pacific region, where China is trying to muscle around.

Why is China talking of forming a larger regional group now? Is there a fear of aggression from the West?

I think they are reacting to the ongoing developments in Europe. As I said, India must make its own choices and it is part of many groupings, big and small. India is not an ally of the US or of any country. It follows a policy of what suits its national interest the best. And that is what it is doing, irrespective of whatever the Chinese official may say.

Is NATO's eastward expansion a real threat to countries such as India, or a bogey to increase China and Russia's influence in the region?

India has no connection with NATO's eastward expansion, so the two situations are not comparable at all.

Which countries are likely to share China's vision of one larger group instead of the smaller blocs, and how likely are they to act on that and why?

It is difficult to say, and I cannot second guess what the Chinese diplomat was wanting to suggest.

G Parthasarathy, veteran diplomat and envoy, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan

'Chinese have said something because they have been too quiet during the Russia-Ukraine standoff ' 

Do you think forming a larger, regional group will benefit India, more than it is being part of smaller groups such as Quad, as this top Chinese official was quoted as saying?

I don’t think so. In any case, who wants help? Did India ask for help? Listen, the Chinese had to say something, and they have said what they think is right. Afterall, with all this going around in Europe, they could hardly have kept quiet; they had to say something, and they have said it.

Which are the smaller groups that are the most beneficial to India and in what specific ways?

What are these small groups of countries and why should India need their help? I don’t understand. As you know, Australia on Sunday said that the Quad member countries have accepted India's position on the crisis in Ukraine and it is evident that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been using his contacts to call for an end to the conflict in that country.

Why is China talking of forming a larger regional group now? Is there a real fear of aggression from the West?

I don’t believe China is apprehensive of the West in any way and there is hardly a chance of sanctions on Russia impacting them in any major way.