Madhya Pradesh Assembly Polls 2018: Will the third front be able to make a mark?

Former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati

In early October, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati lashed out at the Indian National Congress and declared that her party would not ally with it in the upcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh.

Congress and BSP had been engaged in intense seat-sharing negotiations for weeks before the sudden announcement. Mayawati’s decision came as a major blow to the Congress even as she had declared that BSP would not contest with Congress in neighbouring Chhattisgarh as well. BSP has tied up with former chief minister Ajit Jogi-led Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC).

While Congress has expressed confidence that it will beat the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state, it said taking ‘like-minded’ parties along would have helped.

Also read: Key factors likely to impact the election

BJP has been in power in the state for 15 years, out of which Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has held the top office for 13 years.

Congress has been calling this their chance to dethrone the saffron party, riding on a possible tide of anti-incumbency.

Except for two brief Janata Party and Samyukta Vidhayak Dal governments, politics in Madhya Pradesh has been a binary contest between the BJP and the Congress.

Also read: Key trends from the state’s binary politics

The state heads for polling on November 28. The counting of votes will happen on December 11 along with Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana.

BSP

In the 2013 assembly elections, the vote share difference between the BJP and the Congress was 8.5 percent. BSP’s vote share in the election was 6.29 percent.

Going by the numbers, BSP and Congress in the upcoming assembly polls would have added considerable weight to the latter’s chances.

Out of the 230 assembly seats in the state, 34 fall in the Chambal region. This region also has high concentration of voters belonging to the Scheduled Caste (SC), which form the core of BSP’s supporter. This could hurt the Congress’ chances, especially in this region.

According to an analysis by Hindustan Times, BSP has played spoiler for the Congress higher number of times than for the BJP in the last three elections. The BSP and Congress fighting each other had denied Congress at least 22 seats in 2003, 41 seats in 2008 and 34 seats in 2013.

BSP is planning to contest in all 230 seats and has so far released two candidate lists. The party’s candidates include Brahmins, Thakurs and members of other upper caste communities.

Samajwadi Party

In 2013, Samajwadi Party (SP) had picked up a 1.20 percent vote share in the state while in 2008, it won around 2 percent of the votes. SP had won 3.71 percent of the votes in 2003.

The party has contested in Madhya Pradesh across large number of seats. However, it has not been very successful. While it won one seat in 2008, it failed get off the mark in 2013.

According to reports, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party is in talks with BSP for a pre-poll alliance in Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan. The state co-ordinators of the two parties have already participated in multiple rounds of discussions, reports suggest. However, an alliance has not been formally announced.

SP has announced candidates for 10 seats out of the 30 seats it is expected to contest from. It has tied up with the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GGP).

GGP

In 2003, the GGP had won three seats in the 230-member assembly. However, its electoral performance has been on a downward spiral since. In both 2008 and 2013 polls, GGP failed to win a single seat. Between 2003 and 2013, GGP’s vote share also fell from 2.03 percent to around 1 percent across the state.

During the same period, its vote share in contested seats plummeted from 8.10 percent to 3.59 percent.

The party’s core supporters are tribals who make up around 21 percent of the state’s population. Tribals, who are concentrated in the Vindhyan and south-eastern districts (Mahakaushal region) of Madhya Pradesh, have traditionally been Congress’ ‘vote bank’.

However, due to a lack of alliance GGP may take some of these votes away from the Congress.

Also read: A look at how various regions voted in 2013

SAPAKS

Earlier this month, the Samanya Pichra Alpsankhyak Kalyan Samaj (SAPAKS), a group protesting against quotas and the Scheduled Castes and Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, established the SAPAKS Samaj Party.

The organisation was formed around two years ago after CM Chouhan said, “Koi mai ka laal aarakshan khatam nahi kar sakta (No one can dare to abolish reservation)”.

SAPAKS has witnessed large turnout at its protests and rallies. The party has declared 88 candidates so far.

JAYS

The Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti (JAYS), a tribal political outfit is holding alliance talks with Congress. The party has, however, demanded 40 assembly seats and it remains unclear if Congress would yield to this demand, according to a PTI report.

The Kukshi constituency is the bone of contention between the two sides. Congress has been winning this seat since 1972, except for two loses in 1990 assembly elections and 2012 bypoll.

JAYS has made its presence felt in 22 tribal seats spread across Alirajpur, Ratlam, Jhabua, Dhar, Khargone, Burhanpur, Khandwa, Dewas and Barwani districts in Malwa-Nimar region in western MP. The region has a sizable tribal population. Out of the 22 constituencies reserved for tribals here, the Congress currently holds five seats.

The alliance has, however, not been formalised yet. It also remains unclear as to how many seats Congress is willing to offer JAYS.

Independent candidates have also found some success in Madhya Pradesh. In the last three assembly polls, Independent candidates won two, three and three seats, respectively.

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