Madhya Pradesh Assembly Polls 2018: Key factors likely to impact the election

Malwa: In 2013, BJP had swept the region by winning 49 out of the 55 seats here. Congress won five seats while an Independent candidate won one seat. The region includes Mandsaur, which is the epicentre of the agrarian crisis. The Congress is hoping to make gains here. (Image: Reuters)

Madhya Pradesh is scheduled to vote on November 28. The polls are expected to witness a tough contest between the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress.

The BJP government led by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is facing an anti-incumbency sentiment to some extent after being in power for 15 years. Chouhan has held the top office for 13 out of the 15 years.

MP will head to polling in a single-phase election, and the tenure of the current Assembly will end on January 7, 2019.

The counting of votes will happen on December 11 along with Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana.

Here’s are some of the key issues likely to impact the elections:

Anti-incumbency

While Chouhan remains popular and has maintained his ‘vikas purush’ image even after being the chief minister for 13 years, reports suggests that significant fatigue against the government has crept in.

In a state where the politics has been largely binary between the BJP and the Congress, a tide of voters seeking change of guard would be difficult for Chouhan to overturn.

Data from past assembly polls suggests that a large swing of votes is possible in the state. Such instances have occurred in the past, including in 2003 when the BJP stormed to power.

Upper-caste voters

In September, multiple districts across the state observed a complete shutdown in support of protests called by various upper caste outfits against amendments to the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities (POA) Act passed by Parliament in July.

The protests were called by upper-caste outfits including the new SAPAKS party, Rajput Karni Sena, among others.

Reports suggests that the upper-caste voters, who have traditionally supported the BJP in the state, may be drifting the other way.

Fearing this, a senior BJP leader sent an "SOS" to the party’s central command, seeking “impact creating” corrective measures "urgently", according to a report by The Asian Age.

The leader said the party had to take measures to prevent backlash from upper-caste voters.

"The anger among the 'savarnas' (upper castes) is too deep-rooted to be contained by any small measures. It has to be big impact-making steps by the Centre to prevent them from landing in the fold of Congress out of vengeance," a senior Madhya Pradesh BJP leader had told the newspaper.

Unemployment

The issue of rising unemployment continues to plague the Chouhan government, like most states in India.

According to data from the Labour Ministry, Madhya Pradesh had an unemployment rate of 40 people per 1,000 in urban areas and 44 people per 1,000 in rural areas in 2015-16. The overall unemployment rate was around 43 people per 1,000.

Chouhan’s government has come under fire for lack of job creation. The opposition has also targeted the BJP government over this issue and has been promising speedy creation of jobs, if elected.

Mandsaur and the farmer agitation

On June 6, 2017, police in Mandsaur fired at protesters who were demanding better prices for their harvest. Six protesters were killed in the police firing, leading to violent protests that spread to neighbouring districts. A day later, a local factory was torched by protesters.

The protests forced the Chouhan government to launch the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana (BBY) in October 2017, under which registered farmers would be paid the difference between the minimum support price (MSP) and a modal price. The amount would be calculated by taking into consideration the average price of a crop in the state and two neighbouring states.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi was denied permission by the administration to meet the farmers. This, coupled with the death of six farmers, created a positive image for the Congress and a negative image for Chouhan’s government, political observers suggest.

To mark the first anniversary of the farmer protests, Gandhi staged a rally in Mandsaur on June 6 this year. In what was seen as a virtual election campaign launch for the party, Gandhi attacked the BJP governments at the Centre and the state.

Chouhan’s popularity

Congress has also been trying to play the ‘soft Hindutva’ card by undertaking a Ram Van Gaman Path yatra and the party constantly portraying Congress President Rahul Gandhi has a ‘Shiv bhakt’ during road shows and public meetings. Congress, however, denies playing such a card.

Despite such attempts by the Congress, many believe that the election will not be fought on religious or social issues. The BJP believes people would vote on the basis of development work undertaken by the Chouhan government and its successes in the state over the last 15 years.

Other suggests the election will revolve around a central factor — if people will vote for or against Chouhan.

Despite being the chief minister for 13 years, Chouhan remains a highly popular candidate.

According to an opinion survey by India Today-Axis My India, Chouhan was the preferred chief ministerial candidate for 46 percent respondents. This is 14 percentage points more than the closest competitor – Congress’ Jyotiraditya Scindia.

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