Lok Sabha polls | Can Congress overturn the losing trend in Chhattisgarh?

Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel (Image: Twitter/@Bhupesh_Baghel)

Polling in four constituencies of Chhattisgarh happened in the first two phases of the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The remaining seven constituencies will head for voting in the third and final phase on April 23.

Voting in the third phase is taking place in capital Raipur, Bilaspur and Janjgir-Champa, among others.

The state holds a crucial place in Congress’ election strategy. Chhattisgarh was one of the three ‘Hindi heartland’ states where the Congress managed to wrest power from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the December 2018 Assembly election. BJP had governed the state since 2003.

Chhattisgarh: BJP’s historic stronghold

While Chhattisgarh sends only 11 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the Lok Sabha, it has been of tremendous electoral importance to the BJP.

In 2014, the BJP won 10 out of the 11 seats in the state and secured a 49.7 percent vote share in what was called a “Modi wave”. However, the party had managed to win 10 seats in both 2009 and 2004. This, even as the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) stormed to power in 2004 and improved its tally nationwide in 2009.

Congress banking on Assembly poll win

Having won the state election and rolled out the farm loan waiver — one of its key poll promises — Congress is hoping to reverse the tally in the state.

Despite losing 10-1 in all of the three Lok Sabha polls ever held in the state (formed in 2000), Congress has managed to hold on to its core vote share in the two-party contest. In 2004, 2009 and 2014, the party’s vote share was 40.2 percent, 37.3 percent and 39.1 percent, respectively.

Congress’ vote share in the assembly election has seen a steady increase. It was 43.9 percent, 38.6 percent and 36.7 percent in 2018, 2013 and 2008, respectively.

With an increase in vote share, the Congress hoping to close the small lead margin BJP had in some seats.

In 2014, the Congress lost three seats with a margin of less than 5 percent — Kanker, Korba and Mahasamund. Interestingly, Congress had won Mahasamund and Korba in 2004 and 2009, respectively.

In the 2018 state polls, Congress managed to win five out of the eight Assembly segments in the Mahasamund Lok Sabha constituency. In Korba, it won six out of the eight segments.

In Kanker, Congress won all eight assembly segments in December 2018.

Three opinion surveys, all of which were conducted before the first phase of polling, also indicate that Congress is likely to win six to eight seats with BJP picking the rest.

However, the BJP is raring to put up a fight. The party has dropped all of its 10 sitting MPs in the state and has refused to give tickets to any of its Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) there, including Chief Minister Raman Singh. It is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to draw votes, months after facing defeat in the Assembly polls.

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