In-Depth | The magician, the rebel and the revolt: How the Rajasthan political crisis played out, and what comes next

The seeds of discord in Rajasthan, observers have noted, were not sown in July this year, nor during the Rajya Sabha bypolls last month. It was way back in 2018, when the Congress had managed to win the Assembly elections there.

In a state that switches between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress every five years, the Grand Old Party had managed to win 100 seats to BJP's 73 in a 200-member Assembly. This was no hung election, and Congress had come out as a clear winner. Clarity, however, was lacking on the other front —  the chief ministerial candidate.

The tussle, political experts had then said, was between the so-called 'young camp' and the 'old camp', represented by Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot respectively. Then, the debate had raged on about the opportunities— or the lack thereof— that the Congress offered to its young leaders, considered close to Rahul Gandhi, and the bias it showed towards those considered close to Sonia Gandhi.

Eventually, however, the debate then, as it does now, boiled down to the fate of the party, and the path it wants to adopt in future. Would it hand over the reins to the 'young guns' Pilot (Rajasthan) and Jyotiraditya Scindia in Madhya Pradesh, thus signalling a change of times within the party? Or would it go with the experienced, family loyalist 'old guard', nodding towards a status quo?

Sachin Pilot_Ashok Gehlot_Rahul Gandhi

The party went with the latter, the much-maligned 'old guard'. In effect, Gehlot and Kamal Nath— two seasoned politicians— became the Chief Ministers of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh respectively. While Pilot was made Deputy CM, Scindia had turned down the position in MP. The sulking, according to reports, started then and has imploded now.

In March, Scindia rebelled and joined the BJP, taking along with him his loyalists within Congress and the state government. Kamal Nath resigned, paving way for the BJP to form government in the state. Shivraj Singh Chouhan returned as the CM with substantial presence of Congress turncoats within his cabinet.

Over four months since that rebellion, Pilot, the other Congress 'young turk', has followed a similar script. Except that Gehlot doesn't seem to be in any mood to resign, and has in fact proceeded to show his strength by marching over 109 legislators in his support.

As with anything that is politics, however, things don't seem that simple and the crisis has not ended yet.

How did it come to this?

The power tussle between Pilot and Gehlot has been on for a long time, but it became increasingly visible before the 2018 Assembly polls, and continued after Congress clenched a victory.

Ever since the party's win in Rajasthan, Pilot loyalists have said it is because of their leader's groundwork that Congress managed to win the state. However, they have repeatedly claimed that Pilot did not receive his due.

The two camps have had a number of flashpoints ever since, including during the portfolio allocation and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when Gehlot wanted his son Vaibhav to be fielded. During the one-year celebration of the Gehlot government, Pilot claimed that the state government did not showcase the achievements of his ministry. The two camps also had a falling out over the infant deaths in Kota.

Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot

The recent point of contention, according to reports, was the issuance of notices by Rajasthan Police to Gehlot, Pilot and the government chief whip, seeking time from them to record their statements over an alleged bid to destabilise the state government. Reports suggest that this, for Pilot, was the last straw, but Congress leaders in the state and in Delhi have claimed that Pilot had been plotting the fall of Gehlot government way before this issue had surfaced.

To substantiate their claims, the Gehlot camp reportedly released audio tapes of purported conversations between senior Congress leaders loyal to Pilot and leaders from the BJP discussing a bid to topple the state government. While the authenticity of the tapes is yet to be ascertained, Congress has gone on to say that the tapes are, in fact, "just a teaser".

Two First Information Reports (FIRs) under Sections 124A and 120B have also been reportedly lodged by the Special Operations Group (SOG) of Rajasthan after the tapes emerged, and an investigation has been launched.

Meanwhile, Congress moved to sack Pilot from his post as the deputy CM and president of the state unit of the party.

The technical and the legal

As with political crises such as these, things have also taken a technical and legal turn.

First, the technical: after Pilot and 18 dissident MLAs failed to show up for the Congress Legislative Party (CLP) meeting called by Gehlot, Rajasthan Assembly Speaker CP Joshi sent them a notice asking them why they cannot be disqualified.

In its complaint to the Speaker, the Congress had sought action against Pilot and the other dissidents under paragraph 2 (1) (a) of the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution. The provision disqualifies MLAs if they voluntarily give up membership of the party which they represent in the House.

Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot

The Congress has claimed that this is the inference that can be drawn from the conduct of the MLAs. Pilot's camp, however, has argued that they have not defied any whip, since a whip can only be defied when Assembly is in session.

The dissident camp then moved Rajasthan High Court, challenging the notice seeking their disqualification. In the writ petition, the MLAs said they continue to owe allegiance to the Congress and are not seeking to defect to any other party. But the petition made clear that they opposed the manner in which Gehlot functioned.

The Pilot camp got a four-day breather on July 17 after the high court extended the hearing into their petition to next week. Until then, Speaker Joshi will not take any action on the disqualification notices.

Who are the main players in the crisis and what do they stand to lose/gain?

Sachin Pilot

A former Union Minister in the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, Pilot had a measured response to Scindia's exit back in March. Terming it as "unfortunate", Pilot had said then he wished "things could have been resolved collaboratively within the party".

According to a report by The Print, Pilot, in fact, had been planning his rebellion to be "synchronised" with Scindia's revolt. Reportedly, a hotel had also been booked to accommodate the dissident legislators in March, but the lockdown announced due to the COVID-19 outbreak in India put the plan on hold.

But that is where the similarities between Scindia and Pilot end, according to experts. Pilot has the backing of the influential Gujjar caste in Rajasthan, unlike Scindia who did not have a caste base. Moreover, for Scindia, it was easier to take away his loyalists and engineer a fall of Kamal Nath government because Congress' majority in Madhya Pradesh was thin.

Pilot, however, stares at a long road ahead, considering that Gehlot seems to have the required numbers, at least for now. While Pilot claims to have the support of 19 MLAs, that might not be enough to topple the Congress government, even with the backing of the BJP and its allies. Which is also why the BJP has not, so far, demanded a floor test even as Pilot claimed that the Gehlot government is in minority.

The 42-year-old also reportedly had three demands that he put before the Congress high command. Pilot, according to a report by Hindustan Times, wanted to be declared the Chief Ministerial face in 2022, a year before Rajasthan goes to polls. He also wanted all of his loyalists, or the MLAs who had rebelled along with him, to be accommodated in the state cabinet.

The third and final demand, according to the report, was for the removal of Avinash Pande, Congress' Rajasthan in-charge and a general secretary of the party. Senior leadership of the party, according to reports, turned down the demands, terming them as "blackmail".

Ashok Gehlot

Ashok Gehlot

The magician-turned-politician can still, it seems, conjure up a charm when required. This Gehlot displayed when, even as it seemed his government was on a brink of collapse, the 69-year-old submitted a list of 104 MLAs supporting him and his government to the Governor.

When the crisis started, Gehlot, who has been a party veteran and a Gandhi family loyalist, not just risked losing his chief ministerial position but also his standing within the party. But it wasn't as if he was unprepared. The rift between him and Pilot is well-known, and experts have suggested that Gehlot could have been preparing for such a crisis at some point, particularly after Scindia's rebellion.

Gehlot has been known to be a mass leader in Rajasthan, and enjoys the support of a chunk of the party's legislators and leadership in the state. This showdown with Pilot, observers state, has worked in cementing his reputation within the party as someone who enjoys considerable support and can quell rebellion when required. With Pilot's dismissal as the deputy CM and state party chief, Gehlot has also eliminated an immediate threat to him within the party ranks.

Vasundhara Raje

Raje, who has served as the CM of the state twice, has been conspicuous by her absence during the crisis, and has maintained stoic silence over the issue. However, giving fodder to similar speculations doing the rounds, Lok Sabha Member of Parliament (MP) Hanuman Beniwal alleged that Raje was trying to save the Gehlot government.

"Former CM Vasundhara Raje has been trying her best to save the Ashok Gehlot government, which is in minority. Many MLAs of the Congress were called up by her in this regard," Beniwal, who is a BJP ally in the state, claimed in a tweet.

According to reports, Raje wields considerable influence within the state BJP and has support of most of the saffron party's MLAs in Rajasthan. She is also known to be at loggerheads with the central leadership of the party, particularly Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Pilot has meanwhile alleged that Gehlot and his government have been protecting Raje.

"Raje had allotted herself a government bungalow in Jaipur for life in 2017," Pilot alleged, according to reports. "The high court had cancelled this order by her government but instead of getting the bungalow vacated, the state government challenged the HC order in the Supreme Court," he added.

So, what next?

The Rajasthan High Court will resume the hearing on the disqualification notices at 10 am on July 20 and Speaker C P Joshi will not take any action on the disqualification notices till 5.30 pm on July 21.

This has come as a breather for Pilot and the rebel MLAs. However, everything depends on how the numbers are currently stacked up, and against whom. For now, Gehlot has managed to show that he has the majority, but he is balancing on a thin line.

Congress had won 100 seats during the 2018 Assembly polls. That was followed by another seat in a by-election, and the induction of six Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) legislators, taking the overall tally to 107. Congress' current strength, minus the 19 dissident MLAs, stands at 88.

New chief of Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee Govind Singh Dotasara with Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. (Image: Twitter/@ashokgehlot51)

For the state government to survive, it requires 101 legislators to vote for it— and Gehlot has claimed that along with Congress' MLAs, Independents and members of smaller parties, it still crosses the magic number.

The BJP, meanwhile, has the support of 75 MLAs. Of these, 72 are its own and three are from Beniwal-led Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP). In the event of a trust vote, even if the 19 rebel MLAs decide to vote for BJP, its tally adds up to 94— seven short of the magic number. But then without the Independents and the smaller parties' support, the Congress government cannot stand on its own— unless Gehlot has another trick hidden up his sleeve.