Explainer: 2017 redux: EC holds off announcing Gujarat polls along with Himachal Pradesh

Supporters of Bharatiya Janata Party burn firecrackers to celebrate the party's victory in Gujarat assembly elections in Gandhinagar (File photo: PTI)

In a repeat of 2017, the Election Commission (EC) on Friday announced the schedule for elections to the Himachal Pradesh (HP) legislative assembly, but did not say anything about Gujarat. The tenure of the current HP assembly ends on January 8, 2023, and that of Gujarat ends nearly 40 days later, on February 18, 2023.

Besides going to the polls about the same time, there is much in common between the two states when it comes to their current political scenarios. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the incumbent in both states, Congress the main opposition party, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) an emerging challenger.

EC’s decision to hold off announcing the Gujarat election schedule along with HP’s has stirred a political controversy similar to one five years ago. Leaders from opposition parties, particularly the Congress, have raised questions and alleged that it gives the incumbent time to make pre-poll promises in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

EC’s grounds for delaying the announcement

As the apex poll body, the EC is responsible for administering union and state elections, which includes elections to the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, all state legislative assemblies, and to the offices of the President and the Vice-President. Being a constitutional authority, it has the powers to decide all aspects of electioneering, including announcement of the schedule.

‘Convention last followed’ (during the 2017 elections) was one of the key reasons that Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar cited in a media briefing on Friday, while answering a query on why the Gujarat schedule was not announced together with HP’s.

He added that along with inputs from stakeholders, ‘competitive factors’ like the weather, and extension of the period of the model code of conduct (MCC) were considered.

“The Commission goes by convention in announcing the election schedule. It has decided to go by the convention last followed. The preparation and conduct of elections is a very detailed exercise and takes into account various factors, in consultation with stakeholders,” Kumar told reporters on Friday.

He added that weather was an important factor in deciding the schedule for Himachal Pradesh as it snows in some of the constituencies in the upper reaches of the hill state.

Past convention

The last convention that Kumar was referring to was of 2017, when the EC had announced the elections of these two states separately. The then CEC, Achal Kumar Joti, had said then that this was to ensure that the MCC was not extended for a long period of time, and also due to the ongoing flood relief work, which required administrative manpower.

Prior to that, elections for both the states were announced together both in 2012 and 2007. Polling was held around the same time, and the counting day was common for both states in both these years.

In the past two decades, the only other instance when the election schedule of the two states was delinked was during 2002-2003.

Political fallout

Opposition leaders, particularly of the Congress party, were quick to question why the EC had delayed the announcement of the Gujarat elections. Jairam Ramesh, Member of Parliament (MP) and general secretary in-charge of communications for the Congress, posted on Twitter that the move was ‘not at all surprising’ and that it was done to give more time to Modi to make ‘mega promises and carry out more inaugurations.’

Political analysts, however, feel that even though it gives the opposition an opportunity to raise this issue, it will have no impact on the average voter in either of the two states going to the polls.

“It has no impact on the vote or voting pattern. We are living in an age where most voters are sharply polarised in favour of or against a political party,” Sanjay Kumar, professor at the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), told Moneycontrol.

He added that voting patterns were not affected by how elections were scheduled. “If HP election results were declared before Gujarat went to the polls – that could make a huge difference. If the voter sees a party winning handsomely in one state, that can impact the outcome of the election in another state going to the polls around the same time,” he said.

What next?

With the announcement of elections to the 68-seat HP legislative assembly, the MCC comes into immediate effect, as opposed to Gujarat where it will kick in whenever the EC announces its schedule.

Himachal Pradesh will go to the polls on 12 November, and counting will take place on 8 December. However, delaying the announcement of the Gujarat elections does not mean that it will not be conducted over the next two months.

In fact, in 2017, despite the schedule of the two states being announced separately, counting for both took place on the same day – 18 December. The likelihood of this repeating in the current elections cannot be ruled out.

The elections are important for all the parties involved. A win for BJP in Gujarat, where it has been in power since 1998, will boost its confidence ahead of the general elections, less than 18 months away. The state is also crucial for both Congress and AAP — the former is fighting to regain lost ground, and the latter looking to conquer new political territory.

In HP, voters have alternated between the BJP and the Congress since 1993, and no incumbent has successfully retained power ever since. Here too, the AAP is looking to make a dent in the prospects of both the arch-rivals.

Congress is currently in power only in two states, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and the electoral outcome of the HP and Gujarat assembly elections is politically significant for its future. These elections have also come at a time when the party is conducting internal elections to choose a new party president.