Market to react domestic data, global central banks policy outcome: Experts
The coming week is going to be critical for the markets as we have some important data and events are lined up. First, participants will react to the IIP data on Monday. Both CPI and WPI inflation data are also scheduled in the following sessions, says Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking.
Indian benchmark indices ended with nearly 2 percent gain during the week ended December 10 on supportive global markets and easing omicron fears, while in-line RBI policy outcome also boosted the investors’ sentiments. In the last week, BSE Sensex added 1,090.21 points (1.88 percent) to close at 58,786.67, while the Nifty50 rose 314.6 points (1.82 percent) to end at 17,511.3 levels.
2/10
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The consolidation can continue for some more time before the Nifty prepares for the next leg on the upside. The index can take a dip towards 17300-17250 in order to fill up a recent gap area on the daily chart. On the other hand, once the level of 17600 is crossed on a closing basis, it will make a room for the Nifty to take a shot at 18000 subsequently.
3/10
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | The coming week is going to be critical for the markets as we have some important data and events are lined up. First, participants will react to the IIP data on Monday. Both CPI and WPI inflation data are also scheduled in the following sessions. The primary market will see 3 IPOs, HP Adhesives, Data Patterns, Medplus Health Services, opening for subscription next week. Importantly, we have the US Fed meet also scheduled and they will announce the outcome on December 15. Apart from these data, the updates on the global COVID situation will remain on participants’ radar. Though the fear about the new COVID variant has subsided, we’re still seeing volatility across the globe and expect the trend to continue next week as well. Going ahead, we feel the recovery would remain uneven thus recommend continuing with a positive yet cautious approach. On the index front, Nifty would face resistance around 17,600 and 17,800 zone while on the downside 17,300-17,150 zone would act as a cushion in case of any dip. Since we’re seeing a mixed trend across sectors, the focus should be on stock selection.
4/10
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | We are of the view that the uptrend will continue but before a fresh breakout the market may consolidate within the range of 17350 to 17600. Above the same, we could see the continuation wave up to 17700-17850 levels. On the flip side, dismissal of 17350 could possibly trigger one more leg of correction up to 17300-17260 levels. Contra traders can take a long bet near 17260 level with a strict support stop loss of 17200. In the meantime, after a reversal formation the Bank Nifty is currently trading near the 50 and 20 day SMA. Direction wise, the uptrend will remain intact as long as Bank Nifty does not break 36550, which is an important retracement level.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Domestic inflation data and the FOMC meeting will be crucial events that will dominate movements in the Indian benchmark indices. Because the RBI provided no guidance on the rate hike timeline, all eyes will be on the stand FOMC adopts on tapering and interest rate hike trajectory. While it is widely expected that the FED will consider the intensity of the Omicron variant before aggressively preponing tapering plans, any surprises in the announcements can cause choppy movements. Thus, investors should remain cautious and consider value investing till the markets continue to let off steam from excess valuations.
6/10
Ruchit Jain, Trading Strategist, 5paisa.com | Traders are advised to trade with a stock specific approach in this market and be vigilant on how the market participants behave around this mentioned hurdle of 17600. On the flipside, 17480 followed by 17260 will now be seen as immediate supports and a break below the supports could then lead to a loss of momentum.
7/10
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | One needs to now start lightening up longs if Nifty extends the relief move in the coming sessions. On the flip side, we sense the base has shifted higher and the bullish gap left on Wednesday at 17250 - 17300 is to be seen as key support. During the week, we witnessed many astonishing moves in midcap and small-cap stocks and traders can continue with the stock-centric approach; however they need to be very selective going ahead as we are approaching the resistance zone.
8/10
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | The market trend in the coming week will be determined by the domestic and US November inflation data. Ahead of the Fed meeting, global investors are keenly awaiting the US inflation data which is due for release today, in order to gauge the Fed’s decision on rolling back economic stimulus. The market is expecting both domestic and US inflations to be higher than its previous month levels.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | As expected markets are now in a consolidative mode and awaiting fresh triggers for next leg of upmove. Traders advised to keep 'buy on dips' strategy and remain stock specific as action is being witnessed in the broader market.
10/10
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | The market will remain busy this week to deal with outcomes of the policy of global central banks where the decision of the US Fed will be the most important that is scheduled on 15th December. European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Japan will also come out with their monetary policies next week. The recently announced US inflation numbers are in line with expectations and it was not as bad as there was fear therefore the market is not expecting any negative surprise from the US Fed. Technically, Nifty slips below the 16900 level two times but managed to close above this level, and it created a kind of double bottom formation around that level however 17500-17615 is a critical resistance zone; above this, we can expect a move towards the next important resistance zone of 17750-17950; above this zone, bulls will be in full confidence while bears will be on backfoot. On the downside, 17300-17250 will act as an immediate and strong support zone at any pullback while a move below this, may lead to selling pressure towards the 17000-16900 zone.
