Will Iran escalate the Hamas-Israel war? Improbable, though not impossible

Iran's practice of creating and supporting proxy Shiite militias across the region helps it to advance its influence politically, and outsource its wars, without embroiling itself in direct conflict with its adversaries. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Israel-Hamas war has entered its thirteenth day since the devastating Hamas “Al Aqsa Flood” assault on Israel on October 7. Israel has responded by unleashing Operation  “Swords of Iron", a continuous aerial assault on Gaza.

A missile attack on Gaza's Al Ahli hospital yesterday is estimated to have killed hundreds of Palestinians – mostly women and children – sheltering there after Israel’s missive to the local population to leave northern Gaza and head south. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have blamed the attack on Palestinian Islamic Jihad, while the Palestinians have accused Israel of the massacre.

All Eyes On Iran

Iran, non-Arab but one of the strongest and most steadfast supporters of Hamas, has warned of an expansion of the conflict. The spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Nasser Kanaani said: “In the continuation of its shameful crimes against the Palestinian nation, by committing this heinous and horrible crime, the Zionist regime once again showed its ferocity and cowardice to the whole world ...." , calling on the UN to investigate "this war crime".

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had earlier warned that if Israel did not cease its attacks on the Gaza Strip,  "new fronts will be opened", and its Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon launched rockets on Israel's northern border inviting a retaliation from the IDF.

Following the Hamas attacks on Israel, much attention has been focused on Iran, one of the most steadfast supporters of Hamas, financially, militarily, and politically. Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, support for Palestinians has been a cornerstone of Iran's domestic and foreign policy, helping it to burnish its Islamic credentials by transcending both the Arab-Persian, and the Shia-Sunni schisms in the region.

Iran was the first country which not only refused to condemn Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel but also expressed support for the "Palestinian Resistance". It however denied any prior knowledge of these attacks.

Iran’s Preference For Proxy Wars

Iran's practice of creating and supporting proxy Shiite militias across the region helps it to advance its influence politically, and outsource its wars, without embroiling itself in direct conflict with its adversaries. So for instance, through its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon it asserts its influence in Lebanese politics, and militarily has taken on archrival Israel, as seen in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

In Yemen, Iran has fought the Saudi-Emirati supported government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi through its Houthi proxies. In Iraq, it used the Hashd al Shaabi militias to fight ISIS, US forces, as well as assert its influence in domestic Iraqi politics.

Iranian foreign minister Abdollahian has been traveling across the region meeting Arab leaders including Hamas leaders based in Qatar, which is another steadfast backer of Hamas. The US has already dispatched military aircrafts and warships to shore up Israel's defence capacities and as a warning to Iran.

In spite of the rhetoric emerging from Tehran, it is improbable, though certainly not impossible, that Iran will directly join in the war. Neither the assassination of Iran's top military commander Qasim Soleimani by the US nor even the assassination, later, of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh inside Iran, alleged by the Iranians to be a Mossad operation, elicited any direct action from Iran.

Don’t Rule Out A Ceasefire

Israel has been regularly launching airstrikes on Iranian interests in Syria. Similarly, when Iran shot down a US drone plane over its territorial waters or Houthi rebels launched direct attacks on Saudi or UAE interests there has been no direct reprisals on Iran. Rather, it paved the way for several rapprochements in the region, capping which was the Saudi-Iran truce in March this year, brokered by China.

The hospital tragedy in Gaza may yet be a watershed moment in the current conflagration.  Jordan has canceled a four-country summit that included US President Joe Biden, who arrived in Israel on Wednesday.

Israel, which had held the moral high ground after the Hamas attacks and gained large scale sympathy from across the globe is gradually frittering this away with its continuous bombardment of Gaza. While Palestinians are dying, the Lebanese to the north are reeling under an unprecedented economic crisis with no stomach for another war imposed on them by Hezbollah.

Finally, a new front can be opened in the Caucasus where Iran and Azerbaijan enjoy strained relations under a facade of cordiality, in large part because of Israeli military support to Baku and Israeli presence in Azerbaijan.

Iran would also want to keep the diplomatic start it has had with the Gulf countries in decades, none of whom are in the mood for any escalation of the conflict for their own regime survival. Optimistic as it sounds, perhaps a ceasefire is on its way!

Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.