Thackeray cousins gain, Shinde’s under pressure, but BJP remains in pole position

The two Thackerays haven't announced an electoral alliance as yet. (Source: PTI)

Even as a Marathi versus Hindi debate recently threatened to spiral out of control in Maharashtra, the state witnessed a historic political event on Saturday with two Thackeray cousins, Raj and Uddhav, sharing a stage in Mumbai, the first such occasion in about two decades.

Though the two Thackerays haven't announced an electoral alliance as yet for the forthcoming municipal and other local elections in the state later this year, it is largely believed to be a fait accompli now as they risk a huge loss of credibility by not going for it after all this.

That raises the question: what will be the impact of the two leaders, Raj heading Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Uddhav heading Shiv Sena (UBT), joining hands in the forthcoming elections, the one for Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) in particular?

The joint rally's emotional impact on ordinary workers and supporters of the two parties notwithstanding, there are too many variables at play to grant the possible alliance an edge over the ruling Mahayuti led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Resurrection of Brand Thackeray

First about the positives of the historic reunion of the Thackeray cousins.

Its single most important yield is revival of the Thackeray brand created by Shiv Sena’s founder Bal Thackeray.

After his demise in 2012, the Thackeray brand had been getting corroded with BJP slowly throwing cold water on its steely make.

The two cousins' reunion has definitely brought the brand back in the reckoning and will surely give any future alliance between the two a definite advantage.

Together, the two will surely make much greater gains than they would separately have. 

The jury, of course, is still out on if that will be substantial enough to upstage the rivals.

The main source of this advantage is the strong and muscular revival of the Marathi manoos plank. The row over the now-withdrawn compulsion of Hindi from primary school level had the two Thackerays up in arms against the BJP-led government. This led to ugly scenes on the streets of Mumbai and Thanne with MNS and Shiv Sena workers roughing up some Hindi-speaking individuals for alleged disrespect to Marathi language.

Shiv Sena’s roots are intertwined with Marathi

Bal Thackeray had built Shiv Sena with Marathi as a non-negotiable plank. But he had subsequently hopped on to the Hindutva bandwagon and was a lynchpin of a formidable alliance with BJP.

In the aftermath, the Marathi issue had taken a backseat.

But since 2014, with the rise of Modi-Shah era in BJP, relationship between the two partners started souring and eventually led to the two parting ways in 2019 on the issue of sharing the Chief Minister's post.

So uncontrollable became the animosity that the two broke the alliance and Uddhav chose to join hands with once-arch rivals Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to form a government in the state.

But within two-and-a half years, the BJP burgled away a huge section of Shiv Sena Legislature Party and deposed Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray to form the Mahayuti government led by breakaway Sena faction's leader Eknath Shinde.

This was a trigger for Uddhav to reinvent the Marathi pride in terms of larger Maharashtrian pride.

This, however, didn't much help in Assembly elections last year with BJP registering an unprecedented victory.

The current language row may aid Uddhav and Raj

But the latest Marathi-Hindi language row has a much greater potential to touch the emotional chord of Marathi manoos than the issue of larger Maharashtrian pride.

And that precisely is the reason why the two Thackerays have so quickly come together.

The gain could be two-fold. First, many of those who had drifted away from the two over the past few years might return to them out of nostalgic sentiments. These would, of course, be mostly from amongst the Marathi manoos.

And two, the spectacle of two Thackeray brothers coming together might put the Shinde Sena on shaky ground since its much-hyped claim to Bal Thackeray legacy would lose even its remaining potency.

Yet, Marathi as a political issue has limited traction

But does the possible Thackeray alliance have any potential to dent the BJP's votebank in the state?

Maybe, maybe not.

What needs to be understood is that the BJP has played its Hindi card to a plan. It knows that Marathi issue's appeal is limited to places like Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Nashik. But in Mumbai, the Marathi population is just about 38 percent. It is nobody's case that the entire, or majority of, Marathi voters are Thackeray followers. It is currently divided among all parties. Even if we presume that the Thackerays might attract a substantial number of them towards their possible alliance, there will always be a section of Marathi loyal voters ideologically committed to the BJP.

Also, by igniting the Hindi-Marathi row they hope to galvanise the remaining non-Marathi vote bank in Mumbai into voting for it, thus bolstering its electoral prospects in BMC polls.

So, the possible gains by Thackerays’ alliance from Marathi speaking quarters might well be more than compensated for from the non-Marathi speakers, especially the Hindi-speaking voters, who are about 25 percent in numbers.

Even the about 11 percent Gujarati population is likely to largely go the BJP's way.

Muslims numbering around 12-15 percent who had rallied around Uddhav Thackeray very effectively in the last two elections might tactically lean towards the Thackerays once again.

Clearly, the BJP remains in contention to win the BMC battle when seen in the context of Hindi -Marathi divide.

But there is one more factor that could play the decider if the BMC battle is headed for a photo finish. And that is the South Indian voters, who are the next major section of population in Mumbai. BJP's bid to impose Hindi has met with stiff resistance from Tamil Nadu.

Another factor in Thackerays' favour is likely support from most of the Opposition parties. Heads and representatives from most of them were present at the Saturday rally.

Congress, however, was conspicuous by its absence. But given its own compulsions and dwindling fortunes, it is likely that it will eventually hitch its wagon to the Thackeray camp.

A lot will also depend on if the Mahayuti partners - BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) - decide to go it alone as their current mood appears to be.

The BJP, however, has reportedly made up its mind to go it alone.

In that case, Shinde Sena will find it very difficult to garner winning tally of votes since those Marathi people who would have voted for them due to their allegiance to BJP may not vote for it in its standalone avatar.

Of course the Marathi-Hindi row doesn't have much traction in regions like Marathwada and Vidatbha. So the BJP has little to worry about in parts other than West Maharashtra.

Clearly, there are too many variables currently at play in Maharashtra to make any definitive guess about the likely impact of the Thackeray reunion in near future, except that together they do stand to register much greater gains than when they fight separately.