Shows of solidarity with Israel masks a fractured Europe

EU is Israel’s largest trading partner and the biggest donor to the Palestinian Authority.

France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz ended the week as it began, on a note of unity. They presented a strong show of solidarity
with Israel after Hamas’ brutal attack on Saturday claimed 1,200 lives, and they backed sending humanitarian aid as retaliatory attacks kill hundreds in Gaza and threaten a wider regional war.

“Let’s stay united,” Macron told his nation on Thursday. It will be easier said than done.

Although monuments and government buildings have lit up in sympathy with Israel in cities such as Paris, Brussels and Rome, the kind of flag-waving unity seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be hard to revive. Tensions are appearing in public opinion and across the political spectrum; Israeli flags have been torn down in Germany and the UK. Antisemitic incidents are on the rise in France, where pro-Palestinian demonstrations have been banned. And domestic fears may have an impact on ambitions abroad: A poll this week found just over one-third of French people opposed the idea of stronger French diplomatic intervention in the crisis, even as a majority think Hamas should be condemned.

Anxious citizens won’t be reassured by squabbling in the corridors of EU power as troops amass near the Gaza Strip to “wipe out” Hamas. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s man at the European Commission burst the bubble of unity when he announced a freeze on Palestinian aid worth €691 million ($728.1 million), only to see it walked back within hours after an internal backlash; Spain’s government called it a betrayal of European values. The aid will be “reviewed” instead — to the relief of the US and Arab world — yet a move to suspend some bilateral aid by Sweden, which has recently been cutting more arms deals with Israel, shows new fault lines appearing. It’s reminiscent of the days when EU bureaucracy would send three different delegations to the same crisis zone.

We’re a long way from the joint support seen after the Ukraine invasion, which felt geographically closer to Europe, more existential and which “changed minds” about attitudes to Russia and transatlantic security in capitals from Helsinki to Paris, as Nathalie Tocci, special adviser to top EU diplomat Josep Borrell, puts it. This looks more like the EU reverting to type: 27 national and hard-to-reconcile approaches, locked in a ritual diplomatic dance, with a tendency to inaction and speechifying given a glaring lack of hard power.

When it comes to Israel-Palestine, the EU has been teetering on the brink of irrelevance. The bloc’s commitment to a two-state solution that’s withered on the vine has ultimately left it playing second fiddle to the US, while
actors like Qatar — a top donor to Gaza and go-to mediator — play a bigger role. Marwan Muasher, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says Europeans have paid “lip service” to the peace process and lost influence.

Letting this situation continue would be a mistake. The EU is the No. 3 world economy, Israel’s largest trading partner and the biggest donor to the Palestinian Authority. It can and should be a player, not just a payer of aid, in the Middle East. At a time when the US is retreating into election mode, the bloc needs to go against the grain and be more assertive.

Think tank ECFR reckons Europe might serve as a voice of reason by supporting Israel while reminding it of obligations under international law, attempting to prevent wider regional conflict and supporting mediators working to release hostages. In the longer term, it could re-engage with the US and Arab partners to promote a peace process. These are good guiding principles, provided the EU also realises it needs a new strategic toolkit including better defense capabilities, intelligence cooperation and financial oversight to crack down on terrorism.

When the time comes, making all that aid more conditional might genuinely be the right bargaining chip to extract concessions. Until then, as Macron suggested, it’s time for Europe to stay united.

Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Views do not represent the stand of this publication. 

Credit: Bloomberg