Reverse sweep | For the BJP, Kerala still remains a puzzle

It is no longer a chance observation based on the exit polls. Kerala is indeed marching to a tune hugely different from the one that is resonating in the rest of the country.

It is almost as if Kerala is caught in a time warp. While the Congress would like to believe that Malayalis have travelled forward in a time machine, the BJP cannot be faulted for thinking God’s Own Country is still stuck in a dreamland and cannot keep pace with the changing political dynamics of India.

So, how does one explain this evident disconnect? One way to look at it is that the Kerala electorate has bought into the sales pitch of the Congress - that it was forming the next government at the Centre, hook, line and the inevitable sinker. While a Modi wave swept most parts of the country, it appears a Rahul wave did blow right across the state in the days leading up to April 23.

So, was it really a Rahul wave or some deft handling of issues like Sabarimala by the local Congress leaders? They distanced themselves from the gender equality stance of the LDF and even their own central leadership, and maintained that tradition should be protected. If it was quite the Rahul wave, then how did it miss the Alappuzha shore? Did the ‘dirty tricks department’ of the state leadership play its time-tested game of dumping its own candidate in this lone constituency?

The state leaders of the Congress who feared days of total subjugation to the AICC brigade may have got a reprieve. Even if Rahul retains the Wayanad seat, it is quite unlikely now that he would try to intervene in local squabbles and power games unless he decides to play a greater role in Kerala, come 2021 assembly polls. But then he is not in the running to be the next chief minister of the state.

The flip side of the near-total domination of the Congress and its allies has been the CPM, as the LDF, has been totally decimated, nay decapitated. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan and CPM secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan will be hard-pressed to find excuses, other than the glib ones about Parliament and assembly being totally different reality checks and so on. The din will now get loud in the assembly as the opposition sharpens its blade and goes for the jugular on inept handling of both the floods and the Sabarimala issues.

For the Congress, the seemingly ridiculous claim of a 20/20 result has as good as come true. Whoever could’ve imagined a 19-1 drubbing of the LDF in Kerala? Truth be told, not even the most loyal Congress leaders have made such claims privately. Going forward, the Congress think-tank will have its task defined – as much as it deciphers what went wrong across the country, it will also have to decode what went exceptionally right in Kerala.

And the BJP can only rue its bad luck, for not getting it right yet again. Yes, it ran the Congress close in Thiruvananthapuram, but that is just about it. Much was expected of it in Pathanamthitta, but the saffron party looks set  for a third-place finish. The local BJP leaders missed cashing in on the massive Modi wave that broke the back of the Congress in other parts of the country. Now, it can only lick the wounds and try to rejuvenate its rank and file for the 2021 assembly battle.

Looking at the bright side, the representation from Kerala in the Lok Sabha will be quite tangible for the next five years. Especially for those looking across from the Treasury benches, there will be no wishing away the presence of the Malayali brigade as the face of Congress in Parliament.

One is not sure if Prime Minister Narendra Modi would continue to humour Kerala with a couple of ministers this time, perhaps with the next assembly elections in mind. There is no denying that he would be intrigued by this sustained resistance by Keralites. Surely, he may well treat this surreal Kerala vs ‘Rest of India’ situation much like an Irani Cup match. And try to conquer the last bastion.

(Vinod Mathew is a senior journalist based in Kochi. Views expressed are personal).