Punjab Elections | A multi-cornered contest makes it a cliff-hanger

Punjab assembly elections 2022: Charanjit Singh Channi and Bhagwant Mann are the chief ministerial faces of the Congress and the AAP, respectively.

The last few days ahead of the third phase of polling have further muddled up the electoral atmosphere in Punjab. With all major political parties in the state deciding to go alone, the fight for the votes has intensified.

Politician-poet Kumar Vishwas has levelled scathing allegations against Aam Aadmi Party leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal regarding the latter’s links with Khalistani outfits. Punjab Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi has issued a clarification about his alleged remarks against people from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Former Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal is harping on the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)’s Punjabi identity. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has thrown its might to woo the Hindu minority which influences the outcome in 45 seats, and on February 17, Kejriwal asked voters not waste their vote on the BJP.

The Congress seems to be banking on identity politics. From its initial stand of not naming a chief ministerial candidate, the grand old party did a U-turn and announced Channi as its chief ministerial face. This could be with the aim of consolidating the Scheduled Castes, which accounts for one-third of Punjab’s population. The party hopes to ignite Dalit pride and bag majority of the SC votes, much like what Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) did in UP.

Opinion polls give AAP the edge in a state that replaces the incumbent every five years, with the only recent exception in 2012 when the SAD-BJP combine was voted back to power. AAP’s ‘Ek mauka’ campaign has found resonance among a section of voters convinced by the party’s narrative of the Congress and the SAD being two sides of the same coin.

It has consolidated the anti-SAD, anti-Congress vote in Punjab. However, for AAP to win, it has to spread its wings outside of Malwa. Having lost out in the 2017 polls under similar circumstances despite being the most popular party, AAP is treading with caution. However, it has been hit hard by allegations of the sale of tickets and trying to disturb the brotherhood between the Hindus and Sikhs in Punjab.

The SAD, which is the only major regional party in the fray, is fighting an existential battle. The SAD, which was part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) when the controversial farm Bills were introduced, has been hit by other local-level problems. The drug menace in Punjab has affected the party’s image as well.

AAP seems to have made inroads into the SAD’s loyal Jat Sikh voters in the rural belt. Former Chief Minister and SAD patriarch Parkash Singh Badal is also contesting elections. That he is contesting the polls at the age of 94 shows how the SAD is fighting with its back to the wall.

The BJP, after its alliance with the SAD broke, is contesting in alliance with Captain Amarinder Singh’s party and the SAD (Dhindsa Group). The BJP’s calculation could have been that joining hands with the former Congress leader would gain the BJP acceptability within the Sikh community. However, Singh’s baggage of non-performance in the first 4.5 years is going against this alliance.

The BJP might have hoped that the Prime Minister’s security breach on January 8 would consolidate the Hindus in favour of the BJP. However, the Hindus and the Sikhs share a camaraderie that is difficult to break. Moreover, the Hindus here in Punjab are a minority, and thus, for them, law and order, safety-security, good governance, etc. are key factors.

The farmer agitation was spearheaded by Jat-Sikhs, the dominant community accounting for 25 percent of the state population, who are angry with the BJP and the SAD. The repeal of the farm laws might have reduced the anger. A faction of the farmers’ union is contesting the elections, and this could split the Jat-Sikh votes. The bigger farmers’ union faction Ugrahan is still to announce who it is backing.

Most of the 117 assembly seats is seeing a triangular contest, with Hindu-dominated seats witnessing a quadrangular contest. In rural areas where the farmers’ union is contesting, the fight is five-cornered.

Another factor that could influence the outcome in at least a few seats is the way how followers of the Dera Scha Sauda vote, particularly in the Malwa belt. The Deras hold significant influence in the state with lakhs of followers, especially in the Malwa belt. Their leader, Baba Ram Rahim, who is serving multiple sentences in jail, has been released on parole, and leaders are queuing up to seek his blessings.

The multi-cornered contest in Punjab should, normally, benefit the ruling Congress, and the Khalistani allegations is a curveball for AAP and has upset its election machinery. That said, the 2022 elections in Punjab is a cliff-hanger.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.

 Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.