Patna Opposition Unity Meet: The ball lies in Congress’s court

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is currently steering the exercise to unite a large segment of the Opposition before 2024 LS Elections.

Nitish Kumar, the Bihar chief minister, currently steering the exercise to unite a large segment of the Opposition before the 2024 battle, set out the objectives of the Opposition’s first meet beginning today, June 23, at Patna as identifying common issues, preparing a joint statement and appointing a panel to oversee the drafting of a common minimum programme.

No PM Candidate

Given the past experience with such coalitions at the Centre and states and their propensity to end their trysts with power and governance abruptly, Nitish decided to pare down the agenda to feasible ends. Therefore, the meet is not expected to raise the issue of leadership because that’s bound to run into a dead-end.

The Congress will never forfeit its “entitlement” to helm such a coalition given its claim to being the “largest” non-BJP Opposition party while the regional satraps, each powerful within their geographical spheres of power and rule, will never endorse the Congress’s demand.

The 20 parties attending the Patna congregation make for a formidable line-up. It includes the chief ministers of West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, the last two states being politically significant. Despite strenuous attempts, evidenced in a slew of important gestures from the Narendra Modi government and the BJP to the people of Tamil Nadu since November 2022 which saw the hosting of an elaborate Tamil Sangamam at Varanasi, Shiva’s abode, the BJP is a long way from making a breakthrough. In Karnataka, it has to recover from the drubbing it suffered in the assembly polls.

The Dilemma Over AAP

However, certain developments in the lead-up to today’s event do not augur well for the Opposition. The Delhi CM and Aam Aadmi Party chief, Arvind Kejriwal, has a one-point agenda of coaxing the parties’ backing to repeal the  recently promulgated Ordinance which gives the Centre control over the administrative services in Delhi and the National Capital Region.

Kejriwal secured the support of the non-Congress leaders but the Congress, aspiring to regain its lost supremacy in Delhi, has refused to play ball so far. Kejriwal threatened to walk out of the meet if the Congress would not relent to which the Congress’s former Delhi MP, Sandeep Dikshit’s riposte was that Kejriwal was looking for alibis to break Opposition unity. Kejriwal landed in  Patna with possibly the largest entourage comprising the Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann and  AAP MPs Sanjay Singh and Raghav Chadha.

National Conference leader Omar Abdullah – whose father Farooq Abdullah will represent the NC at Patna – reminded Kejriwal that he had backed the Centre’s reading down of Article 370 and the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories. So could he legitimately expect the NC to be in cahoots on his agenda when it suited him?

Roadblocks To Unity 

Privately, Opposition sources acknowledged that the “unity” exercise will gain traction only if the participating parties agreed to field a single candidate against the BJP in each seat and not reduce the esprit de corps to a farce of competing identities and jousts.

While the Congress seemed unlikely to yield ground to the AAP in Kejriwal’s Delhi and Punjab strongholds because it is convinced it will stage a comeback, in West Bengal its alliance with the Left Front is a natural stumbling block against arriving at an understanding with the Trinamool Congress. In Uttar Pradesh, the still dominant Samajwadi Party harboured reservations against collaborating with the Congress after the disastrous showing in the 2017 assembly polls when they were allies.

Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Bihar are the only states where the Congress’s partnership with far bigger forces such as the DMK, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the NCP, and the Janata Dal (United) and RJD has held so far. That’s only because it is a minor constituent and in no position to defy, say, Sharad Pawar who calls the shots in Maharashtra.

Vulnerability To BJP’s Machinations

The “equidistance club” grows because thanks principally to the predilection of the leaders to warm up to the Centre. The BJP has nurtured its relations with the YSRCP, BJD and JD(S) (the last being a Johnny-come-lately to the cabal) and viewed the BSP with amusement. Obviously, none of these leaders were invited to the meet.

Given the BJP’s pre-eminence in the current scenario, the Opposition regrouping is vulnerable to its pressures and tactics. Nitish lost an ally, Jitan Ram Manjhi of the Hindustani Awam Morcha, to the BJP last week, indicating that despite his ambition to anchor an Opposition coalition, the ground beneath his feet is shaky.

In the end it is not Nitish or MK Stalin who could cement the Opposition together. The ball lies in the Congress’s court and its willingness to accommodate the regional forces and not play Big Brother.

Radhika Ramaseshan is a senior journalist and columnist. She was the political editor of The Telegraph. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.