Not implementing Women’s Reservation Bill (WRB) with immediate effect is risky for BJP

The WRB lacks in appeal, there is no clear path to implement the Bill with best estimates in 2029 (as per government).

The historic women’s reservation bill (WRB) has been passed near-unanimously by both the Houses of Parliament. Many commentators believe that this will help the BJP further consolidate the women votebank, which is now increasingly acting as kingmaker of sorts in elections due to their sheer number, high turnout, and independent voting cutting across caste/class lines.

In the 2019 general elections, 46 percent women voted for the BJP-led NDA versus 44 percent men as per Axis-MyIndia exit poll. NDA enjoyed a lead of 19 percent among women voters versus Congress-led UPA.

Party strategists hope that high representation could negate some of the negativity which may have crept in amongst this emotional voter base due to price rise, release of Bilkis Bano convicts, the shameful incidents in Manipur and non-action on wrestlers’ sexual harassment case against a BJP MP.

Will WRB Help BJP In 2024?

Theoretically it should. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has developed a loyal women labharthi votebank riding on gender centric schemes like Ujjwala Yojana, Swachch Bharat, Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Awas Yojana, Matru Vandana Yojana etc.

What differentiates Modi from his predecessors is the tight implementation of various schemes under his regime like DBT, ensuring minimal leakages and money reaching the beneficiaries accounts directly on time. His ability to plug loopholes in the system and get work done despite a highly bureaucratic environment that normally opposes change and enjoys the status quo clearly stands out.

This is where the WRB lacks in appeal. There is no clear path to implement the Bill with best estimates in 2029 (as per government) and worst in 2039 (as per opposition).

How would BJP leaders and workers explain to women voters why the bill isn’t being implemented immediately? The answer proffered by the BJP to this question is very technical and legal, not simple for a common person to understand, laced with jargon ranging from delimitation to census to horizontal/vertical reservation.

BJP has used the slogan “Modi hai to mumkin hai” to the hilt. A woman voter could ask, then why not immediately implement the bill, why such a long wait?

Doesn’t Square With Modi’s Strongman Image

The woman voter would think that PM Modi can conduct the Balakot strike (“Pakistan ko ghar mein ghus ke marta hai”), lead complex global negotiations in G20, pass the instant triple talaq ban law, abrogate Article 370, win elections after elections for the party, but can’t tell her with certainty when the WRB will be implemented? Why is there no Modi ki Guarantee given in WRB?

Modi is used to laying down a defined path for his various promises like India will become a developed country by 2047 and the third largest economy in his third term. He has built an image larger than the party; every third voter is backing BJP because of his or her admiration for the PM.

Modi uses slogans like “Ek akela Modi sab par bhaari” which is a hit amongst his supporters. He has acquired a demi-god status and is regarded as the most popular PM India has ever produced. He has built a “jo kaha so kiya” solid image.

But leaders like actors have the tendency to fall into the trap of their image. They need to maintain their image at any cost, having taken years of sweat, toil and blood to build it. People expect their leaders to react to events in line with their image.

India’s strong response to Canada is being applauded by the voters as this is what people expect of a strong leader like Modi and 64 percent prefer hunting down and eliminating terrorists.

One of the most powerful men on earth, the most popular leader in the world, can’t implement WRB immediately, and is bogged down by technicalities. If this narrative is driven by the opposition, then it has the potential in the age of social media to create doubt about the political will of BJP and PM Modi in the minds of women voters, especially the young.

Alternatively, Modi can spin a googly on the Opposition by announcing women as one-third of BJP candidates or as close to that as possible. Other powerful leaders like Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee followed this route in 2019. It will be tough in BJP but Modi has the ability to pull it off. The Congress with its weak high command could struggle to follow suit.

But in its present form, the law as has been passed by Parliament may not fetch BJP the gains it craves for.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.