MVA in pole position in Maharashtra election

MVA Alliance

The 2024 Lok Sabha election in Maharashtra was about wanton deployment of money and state's muscle power to balkanise and weaken the Opposition to wrest power, something Maharashtra had never previously witnessed to such disruptive effect. Among all the states, Maharashtra dealt the BJP what was relatively the biggest blow, reducing its 2019 tally of 23 to 9.

The BJP and its new allies, Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Ajit Pawar,
contesting as an alliance called Mahayuti, won 17 seats while the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance won 30, with one seat going to a friendly Independent.

With this backdrop, the two alliances are yet again fighting what is being viewed as perhaps the most crucial and prestigious electoral battles in recent times.

Obviously, the moot question is: Will the BJP-led alliance bounce back to retain power?

Maharashtra’s social setup is dissimilar to Haryana

Although the BJP was in high spirits after the impressive victory in Haryana Assembly polls last month after being cut to size in LS polls, Maharashtra presents an entirely different set of challenges before it. Maharashtra doesn't provide the ready fertile socio-political ground for large-scale community polarisation.

In Maharashtra, where a divide exists between the dominant Marathas and OBCs over the vexed reservation issue, the OBCs are unlikely to swing en bloc towards the BJP-led alliance to provide it a comfortable edge over MVA.

This is for the simple reason that in Maharashtra, just too many parties are in fray for the OBCs to be exclusively consumed by the BJP.

In Vidarbha, for example, Kunbis - the peasant section in the larger Maratha clan, are counted among OBCs and had rallied around Congress in LS polls.

And Vidarbha is being seen by many as the happy hunting ground for MVA in Assembly polls too.

The same, however, can't be said about Marathas. Their vote is most likely to remain much more cohesive and united. As the buzz is, and going by the strong anti-BJP position taken by Maratha agitation leader Manoj Jarange Patil, antagonistic Maratha mobilisation will continue to be Mahayuti's headache.

The cohesive Maratha consolidation and the disparate OBC group form about 33 percent and 37 percent of state's population. As such, the BJP can't expect a decisive turnaround in its favour.

Add to it the Dalit and Muslim factors which, along with Kunbis (together called the DMK factor), had ranged against Mahayuti in LS 2024, dealing it a severe blow. Not much has changed for them since then to force a rethink.

Social movement impacts politics

What also sets Maharashtra apart from other states is a long, enduring tradition of progressive social awakening, known as Purogami vichardhara, that has stood firmly against hegemonic Brahminical forces. From warrior Maratha king Shivaji to a centuries old lineage of saints belonging to all castes, including Dalits, and from many social reformers to anti-casteism movement led by the trinity of Jyotiba Phue-Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj-Babasaheb Ambedkar, Maharashtra has been a tough state for the RSS and the BJP to get a foothold that could help it win elections on its own.

Being seized of this reality, the BJP has been, over the last few years, been attempting to broaden its base by resorting to hard Hindutva.

The Hindutva vitriol spread by the fronts like Sakal Hindu Samaj, which the BJP can conveniently wash its hands of, and the  openly communal vocabulary like "vote jihad" used by Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in his public utterences are testimony to it.

But in LS polls, Hindutva didn't lift the BJP's sagging fortunes. And there is no reason why it would now help.

On the contrary, with Maharashtra's well-entrenched progressive social traditions providing a strong firewall against Hindutva for several decades, the "Batenge to katenge" narrative scripted by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and supported by RSS is not going down well with the people and could actually dent BJP's prospects.

It has not only been opposed by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar but also by BJP's MLC Pankaja Munde and BJP Rajya Sabha MP Ashok Chavan. Even Modi had to rephrase it as "Ek hai to safe hai"(we will stay safe if we are united). But the Adityanath slogan continues to stir the communal pot.

The fact that the BJP chose to invest heavily in the Hindutva rhetoric in the last leg of the battle along with a cash transfer scheme to women called Ladki Bahin (beloved sister) shows that the party is under pressure in this election.

Economic and agrarian issues are relevant

The buzz on the ground is one of resentment against the government on issues like price rise, unemployment and agrarian crisis. People have taken advantage of Ladki Bahin but are also complaining that price rise, especially food inflation, is their biggest concern. They are also flagging the unemployment problem.

Farmers are angry over non-remunerative prices for cotton and soyabean and non-availability of labourers for picking operations reportedly triggered by people choosing to stay home after receiving the Ladki Bahin money.

Coupled with ten years of anti-incumbency and the self-inflicted damage to its own image, these issues have the potential to only damage the Mahayuti's prospects.

In LS polls, the Constitution issue had severely dented the BJP. It doesn’t seem to resonate much with the people this time round.

Dalits and Muslims, whose anxieties about threats to their rights and existence were amplified through the Constitution blitz by the Opposition, are unlikely to warm up to the BJP.

And with the Bahujan Samaj Party and  Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi’s reputation as BJP's ‘B’ teams, the likely beneficiary of the Dalit votes would be MVA, not Mahayuti.

Cohesiveness is lacking in Mahayuti

What also doesn't seem to be working in Mahayuti's favour is the lack of cohesion among the three partners. There is a subtle one-upmanship, at least between the BJP and the Shinde Sena.

Shinde, who seemed to be on shaky ground and was largely seen as BJP's stop-gap arrangement, actually proved to be a tough nut to crack. Far from being sidelined, he may force BJP's hand to make him the CM again should  Mahayuti win.

The "active" RSS participation this time will definitely give BJP a leg-up but Maharashtra also has an equally active civil society movement providing an effective counter. The Nirbhay Bano (be fearless) movement led by veteran journalist Nikhil Wagle and social activists Vishwambhar Chaudhari and Aseem Sarode had held several rallies across state against BJP's politics,  with participation of many other civil society groups.

The Mahayuti’s non-cohesiveness within may also affect the smooth transfer of votes among one another. Ajit Pawar refused to host PM Modi's rallies, saying they were not needed in his constituencies.

Comparatively, the coordination among MVA partners appears much better and could facilitate better transfer of votes, thanks to the astute handling of the alliance by Sharad Pawar.

But will Modi not make a difference? Seems unlikely. At least 16 LS constituencies where Modi had held rallies in LS polls had seen Mahayuti's defeat. If the people didn't heed his appeals for choosing Delhi government, they are unlikely to do it when they have to choose the state government.

Clearly, odds appear stacked heavily against Mahayuti for the November 20 polling. It would be interesting to watch its political manoeuvres over the next few days to clinch the issue in its favour.

(Vivek Deshpande was with The Indian Express and is now a freelance journalist based in Nagpur.)

Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.