Mamata Banerjee’s TMC remains in pole position for bypolls

The upcoming by-elections are being projected as an acid test of Mamata’s popularity.

It’s widely known that the future of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who also happens to be a potential prime minister, hinges on the outcome of nine assembly by-elections scheduled for next month in the politically and electorally most important state of the nation. Without a doubt, the Hindutva poster boy is on the back foot; his rise or fall now depends on the number of seats he manages to swing for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

But is November, known to be a cruel month anyway, equally crucial for the career of yet another prime ministerial aspirant -- Mamata Banerjee – the Chief Minister of West Bengal where six assembly by-elections are being held along with the UP by-polls and elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra?

The half-a-dozen poll contests on November 13 in West Bengal will be the first trial of strength for Mamata’s Trinamool Congress after the horrific rape-cum-murder of a young woman doctor inside Kolkata’s government-run R G Kar Medical College and Hospital on August 9, which triggered an unprecedented civil disobedience movement sans political or ideological colour that is simply refusing to die down.

The prolonged, dramatic junior doctors-led agitation in the full glare of publicity, primarily by men and women in their 20s and 30s demanding not only justice for the victim but an end to systemic corruption and criminality in health administration, has inevitably brought West Bengal into sharp national focus. Televised footage of the unrest has naturally raised questions about Mamata’s authority and hold over the state rocked by continuous protests and demonstrations for over two-and-a-half months.

TMC’s on a Strong Wicket

But, honestly speaking, there is no imminent threat to Mamata – in contrast to Yogi’s current vulnerabilities – and her Trinamool Congress is all set to sail through the by-elections. Whereas uncertainties and adversities stare Yogi-BJP in the face, Mamata-Trinamool Congress is on song.

In some quarters, the upcoming by-elections are being projected as an acid test of Mamata’s popularity and standing, accompanied by dire predictions of loss of face and seats. Such assessments misread the very character and scope of the popular uprising that has thrust West Bengal into the national limelight.

Contest is Areas Far From The Epicentre of Protests

Firstly, out of the six seats – Naihati, Haroa, Mednipur, Taldangra, Sitai and Madarihat – five elected Trinamool Congress MLAs in the 2021 assembly polls, while the BJP won in Madarihat. By-elections are now being held as the MLAs representing them contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and won. Hence the Trinamool Congress has a 5:1 head start on the BJP -- and is brazenly confident of snatching Madarihat from the competition.

Secondly, the by-elections are being held in rural and semi-urban areas of Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, North 24 Parganas, West Mednipur and Bankura districts, whereas the historic and unparalleled people’s movement unleashed by the woman doctor’s rape-murder is by and large confined to the state capital, Kolkata.

All the six seats are far removed from the epicenter of the revolt and therefore insulated from its effects. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of participants in the civil disobedience movement are the educated middle classes and upper middle classes and not the poor people, and certainly not the rural masses. The rural and semi-urban poor population are probably sympathetic to the larger cause but have not taken to the streets in significantly large numbers making the mass revolt an urban and metropolitan phenomenon at best.

Political Parties Couldn’t Benefit From the Upsurge

Thirdly, the people’s movement has remained distinctly apolitical since its inception and has consciously not permitted any political party any space. It has kept the BJP especially at arm’s length, and the BJP has indirectly conceded its inability and utter failure to take any advantage of the upsurge. Neither have the others in the opposition, like the Congress Party or the Left really been gainers. So the question of the BJP, Congress Party or the Left deriving any advantage in the by-elections from the unrest does not arise.

Fourthly, the objective of the movement is justice for the victim and institutional reforms to curb corruption – and not the ouster of the Trinamool Congress government. Importantly, the uprising has never demanded Mamata’s resignation. If anything, it has pinned all its hopes on Mamata; it expects better from Mamata and genuinely wants her to raise her game. The CM still remains a beacon of hope amid the gloom. Not once have the junior doctors helming the upsurge denounced Mamata or given any call to boycott her. On the contrary, they have repeatedly responded to her outreach and held marathon meetings with her.

As the people’s movement; unprecedented as it is; is essentially not at loggerheads with Mamata or her regime, there is no question of the upsurge adversely affecting the Trinamool Congress’ prospects in the by-elections. Mamata still enjoys the upper hand because she had the political maturity not to lock horns with the agitators but to hold talks with them almost as equals.

As Mamata -- a master strategist -- stooped to conquer, she has no reasons to dread the outcome of the by-elections – unlike Yogi.