Maharashtra Political Crisis | Can Uddhav Thackeray save his government, and Shiv Sena?

Shiv Sena's Uddhav Thackeray, Aaditya Thackeray and Sanjay Raut (File image: PTI)

The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government — the ruling alliance consisting the Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the Congress — is facing its biggest crisis ever, and battling for survival.

The Shiv Sena is facing a rebellion from within led by strongman Eknath Shinde, and the main reasons cited are the inaccessibility of Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, Adithya Thackeray’s meddling in governance issues (Aditya Thackeray is the son of the Chief Minister and a minister in the Cabinet), and the Shiv Sena deviating from its core ideology of Hindutva.

Shinde who has raised the banner of revolt is claiming support of 40 MLAs, and is currently staying at a resort in Guwahati, Assam.

Tensions have been brewing in the MVA for some time now, mainly because it is an ensemble of ideologically opposite parties. Built on a shaky foundation, with probably the only common factor being the desire to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) out of power, the loss in the Rajya Sabha polls and the Member of Legislative Council polls amplified the fissures.

Such unnatural experiments, as was seen between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka, and between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, have a short shelf life.

Transition of political power in family-centric regional parties often face resistance. In the Shiv Sena, when it came to the successor of Bal Thackeray, Raj Thackeray revolted against Uddhav Thackeray.

Now, with Aditya Thackeray allegedly calling the shots in party affairs as well as drafting vision for various ministries, perhaps senior leaders in the Shiv Sena got jittery about their future prospects.

The Shiv Sena, since it became a part of the MVA in 2019, has been sending confusing signals about its ideological positioning. For the 25 years of its alliance with the BJP, the Shiv Sena identified itself and the party was built as a Right-wing party with a pronounced Hindutva stand. But now, after breaking alliance with the BJP and joining hands with the NCP and the Congress, is the Shiv Sena a Hindutva party or a secular party?

Aditya Thackeray’s recent visit to Ayodhya, and the MVA government’s proposal to rename Aurangabad showed that the Shiv Sena was still a Right-leaning party, but its criticism of Uttar Pradesh’s ‘bulldozer politics’ and framing charges against the former BJP spokesperson in the Prophet controversy showed that the Shiv Sena was  walking a tight rope.

Decades of being with the BJP has made many Shiv Sena MLAs uncomfortable in the new alliance, especially because the NCP and the Congress have been their political rivals for decades. With the NCP cornering important ministries in the MVA government, Sharad Pawar’s party has been able to utilise resources for its expansion at the cost of Shiv Sena and the Congress in Maharashtra. Pawar is also alleged to be shadow running the government, taking advantage of Uddhav Thackeray’s lack of administrative experience.

A fear haunting many Shiv Sena MLAs and party workers is that the party is losing the ground beneath its feet. By remaining in the MVA, it is losing its core vote bank to the BJP, and the Muslims and Dalits are unlikely to back the Shiv Sena as it already has the NCP and the Congress covering that space.

Shinde, being s shrewd politician, has justified his rebellion by saying that he is forced to do so to protect the legacy of Bal Thackeray. Shinde, having been long associated with the party, sees himself as a mass leader, unlike the father-son duo. If the MVA government is toppled and a new one is formed with the help of the BJP, Shinde could become the Deputy Chief Minister.

With the numbers swelling in Shinde’s camp, it seems to be a lost cause for the MVA. Now, Uddhav Thackeray could thwart the BJP’s attempt to form a government. He could recommend dissolution of the House, and call for fresh elections. However, the Governor may give the BJP a chance immediately, or after a short spell of President’s Rule.

Uddhav Thackeray would now have to hit the ground, brand the gang of rebels as traitors, and prove that he is the true heir of Bal Thackeray’s political legacy. He has to ensure that the Shiv Sena’s reins remain with the Thackeray’s in the event Shinde gets the support of two-third of the MLAs. If Uddhav Thackeray wins this round, it would be difficult for the rebels in the upcoming polls. Along with saving his government, Uddhav Thackeray has to also save the Shiv Sena.

The BJP is adopting a cautious approach so as to not repeat the mistake of a 5 am swearing in. It may have the last laugh, and in that the public mandate of 2019 will finally be honoured.