Can BJP survive this exodus of its MLAs in Uttar Pradesh?

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath (File image)

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been hit by a flurry of resignations in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh. Optics-wise, it is bad news for the ruling BJP. Ministers resigning at a time when most opinion polls as well as the party top brass is confident of retaining power sends mixed signals.

This helps the Samajwadi Party (SP) seize the narrative, and create an impression that the party is closing the gap, and even coming back to power.

Usually it’s the BJP that carries out these political ‘surgical strikes’ on opposition parties before the polls; Maharashtra and West Bengal being the recent examples. However, in UP it has been at the receiving end. It also highlights how its strategy of inducting turncoats in a bid to win in 2017 assembly polls has backfired. A party which prides itself on discipline has some soul searching to do.

Most leaders leaving the party belong to the noveau/anchor backward and Dalit vote bank, which the BJP has created after Modi’s advent to the national scene. Allegations of the BJP’s neglect towards the backward classes, the underprivileged, and the Dalits, also mars the party’s pitch of high representation in power accorded to these sections.

Three ministers led by Cabinet minister and OBC leader Swami Prasad Maurya, and eight other MLAs have rocked the boat to date. The party could see more desertions as tickets are announced. The BJP, of late, has been denying tickets to 25-40 percent MLAs/MPs in any election to negate local level anti-incumbency/non-performance; in the 2019 general elections it was 37 percent.

Some reports say that the BJP is likely to deny tickets to 100 sitting MLAs in UP. It has created a furore among its rank and file. Just before the 2017 assembly polls, hordes of leaders from the SP, the Bahujan Samaj Party, and the Congress joined the BJP. With the chances of a candidate winning becoming a criteria, the party gave tickets to more than 50 such turncoats.

Most of them won, thanks in no small measure to the ‘Modi wave’, and 12 among them were induced into the Cabinet. These leaders do not have a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh association, and some of them could jump ship if they’re denied a ticket, or accommodated suitably. Such leaders, and there are many of them, will pledge their allegiance to a party they feel has an upper hand. It is a hallmark of Indian realpolitik. For example, ambitious leaders such as Maurya could move to another party if offered a better role there.

Now how much of this is likely to impact the BJP’s prospects in UP? Maurya has some influence in Purvanchal, where the party is facing ally trouble: OP Rajbhar has left the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and joined the SP, the Nishad Party is demanding Schedule Caste status for the community, while the Apna Dal is demanding an OBC census.

Mauryas account for 6 percent of UP’s population. However, the MLAs who have left along with him do not have a state-wide appeal. They could damage the party in pockets. The BJP has also built its own leaders in the non-Yadav OBC category, which is likely to neutralise some of this impact.

The BJP could also brand them non-performers, and dent their prospects. The damage would be limited to specific seats, and can be determined only after tickets are announced by all the contesting political parties. The danger for the BJP is that this should not explode into a forward-versus-backward war in the BJP.

Before the 2017 polls, the BJP was largely seen as a party representing upper caste and Baniyas in UP. Through deft social engineering it has positioned itself as a true champion of the non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatavs. Brahmins are already unhappy with Thakurvaad under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and this adds to the existing problems for the BJP.

UP is the laboratory of the BJP’s social engineering as well as its umbrella Hindutva offering. It has managed to unite various caste groups under the banner of the Ram temple, and its strong nationalist/vishwaguru pitch.

The Opposition realises that the 80:20 strategy is difficult to beat. The SP has accepted the shortcoming of the Muslim-Yadav vote base, and started making a dent in the BJP’s OBC vote bank.

This vote bank, consisting of hundreds of sub castes, is new for the BJP and its intricacies make it difficult to hold. This new challenge poses a bigger question of cracks in Hindutva, and the potential comeback of caste-based socialist parties in the Hindi heartland.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.