Heavy Duty: India is getting fatter and there are economic costs

As much as 1.5 billion adults and nearly 400 million children are expected to be living with obesity in 12 years

As obesity is getting more prevalent, its economic cost is rising. The total impact of the overweight and the obese on the Indian economy could go high as $129.33 billion by 2035, per a recent report published by the World Obesity Federation.

According to the report, called the World Obesity Atlas, obesity in the country is expected to increase by 5.2 percent annually (on average) by 2035. Among children, the annual increase is expected to be even higher, at 9.1 percent during the period.

The report uses the WHO definition of obesity — a body mass index (BMI) of 30 and above, while a BMI between 25-30 is considered overweight. The economic impact has been calculated by taking into account the healthcare costs of treating obesity and its consequences, and the impact of high BMI on economic productivity, with high BMI contributing to absenteeism, reduced productivity, and premature retirement or death.

“The increasingly sedentary lifestyle where everything is available at your fingerprints is the major reason for the increase in obesity. Even workplaces are pretty sedentary now with increased automation,” said Deepalekha Banerjee, a Bangalore-based nutritionist.

Rising obesity in India

There has been a significant increase in obesity in India in recent decades. According to data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the proportion of men that are overweight or obese has gone up from 9.3 percent in 2006 to 22.9 percent in 2021. Among women, this figure went up from 12.6 to 24 percent.

“Even our food habits have changed a lot. People are consuming increased amounts of refined food. At the same time, the amount of calories burned have reduced due to lifestyle changes. Hence, the consumption (of calories) is more than the expenditure,” said Mitali Palodhi, Vice President of Indian Dietetic Association.

Rise in obesity will lead to increased prevalence of associated diseases, say experts.

“The rise in obesity has also led to increased prevalence of issues related to hormonal imbalance, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases,” said Banerjee.

Of the estimated economic cost to India by 2035 due to obesity, direct healthcare costs account for $8.43 billion, while premature mortality accounted for $109.38 billion. Direct non-medical costs ($176.32 million), absenteeism ($2.23 billion), and reduced productivity ($9.10 billion) comprise the rest.

Wealth isn’t health

Data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows that people from urban areas are more obese or overweight than those from rural areas. As much as 33.3 percent of women and 29.8 percent of men from urban areas are overweight or obese, compared to the 19.7 and 19.3 percent of women and men, respectively, from rural areas

Also, people from the  top 20 percent in terms of wealth were found to be more overweight or obese than others.

However, with the increased availability of refined foods in rural areas, they too have been seeing an increase in obesity, said Palodhi. “With the increased availability of refined foods, obesity is not really restricted to the urban populace anymore. There has been a significant increase in obesity even in rural areas as the food habits of people there have changed,” she said.

A global issue

As much as 51 percent of the world's population could be overweight or obese by 2035. If prevention and treatment measures do not improve, the economic impact of that could go as high as $4.32 trillion.

This is almost the double the 2025 estimate of $2.47 trillion.

The economic impact could reduce world GDP by as much as 2.9 percent by 2035, up from the estimated 2.5 percent by 2025.

Based on current trends, childhood obesity among boys is expected to double by 2035 to reach 208 million. Meanwhile, among girls, it is estimated to increase by 125 percent, to reach 175 million.

In total, as much as 1.5 billion adults and nearly 400 million children are expected to be living with obesity in 12 years, unless significant action is taken, said the report.

Region-wise impact

According to the World Obesity Atlas, the Western Pacific Region (WPR), which includes countries such as Australia, Japan, China, Singapore, and New Zealand, will face the biggest economic blow — $1.56 trillion, or 2.8 percent of GDP, by 2035.

The impact on the South-East Asian Region (SEAR), which includes India, is estimated to reach $256 billion, or 2.2 percent of GDP, in the same period.