Vote-cutter or X-factor? How Prashant Kishor can upset NDA, Mahagathbandhan arithmetic in Bihar

Kishor has stated that his party intends to cut votes from both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, influencing outcomes in closely-contested constituencies.

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is emerging as a game-changer in the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections.

That said, a key question doing the rounds is -- whose prospects will it hurt more -- the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) led by the RJD, or both?

While the JSP is unlikely to win a significant number of seats, its primary impact could come as a vote-splitter, disrupting traditional voting patterns.

The NDA appears particularly vulnerable to the JSP’s rise.

Kishor, a Brahmin by caste, has targeted Nitish Kumar directly, claiming the JD(U) might secure fewer than 25 seats and branding his governance as a “bureaucratic jungle raj.” The JSP’s campaign focuses on education, employment, and governance reforms, strongly resonating with younger voters frustrated with the incumbent alliance.

Kishor has stated that his party intends to cut votes from both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, influencing outcomes in closely-contested constituencies.

Positioning itself as a third pole, the JSP also draws comparisons to the Lok Janshakti Party’s (LJP) role in 2020. That year, the LJP, led by Chirag Paswan, contested 134 seats, winning none but securing more votes than the victory margin in 73 constituencies, mainly affecting the JD(U). This year, the JSP plans to contest all 243 seats, which could give it even greater influence, although it lacks the LJP’s established voter base and organisational network.

Furthermore, caste continues to play a decisive role in Bihar politics, and Kishor’s strategy of fielding candidates from diverse communities aims to disrupt entrenched vote banks. Candidate selection on individual seats would play a critical role in determining whether  or not the JSP chips away more at the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan.

Depending on how JSP votes are distributed, the party could tip the balance in tightly contested constituencies, becoming a decisive player in Bihar politics.

Additionally, Kishor’s campaign has also put senior NDA leaders under scrutiny. Allegations of corruption and misuse of political influence have been directed at BJP’s Dilip Jaiswal, MP Sanjay Jaiswal, Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary, and JD(U)’s Ashok Choudhary, although all have denied wrongdoing. By bringing these issues into the spotlight, the JSP has amplified anti-incumbency sentiment while presenting itself as a credible alternative to both alliances.

However. Despite its magnifying influence, the JSP faces challenges.

Its limited organisational strength and lack of a clear ideological base could restrict its ability to convert votes into seats. Its key role may be splitting votes, reshaping the electoral arithmetic between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, making it either a disruptive vote-cutter or a potential x-factor in the elections.

Key factors underline the JSP’s influence. The party could attract disillusioned voters frustrated with both major alliances. Its focus on governance, education, and employment may appeal to younger and middle-class voters.

Kishor’s strategy of targeting caste-based vote banks, demonstrated in past by-polls, could alter traditional voting patterns. Additionally, allegations of corruption against senior leaders from both alliances may influence voter perception.

Contesting all 243 seats independently, the JSP positions itself as a direct challenger rather than a coalition partner, ensuring competition with Mahagathbandhan candidates across the state.