Uttar Pradesh assembly by-polls: Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav face off in high-stakes showdown

With the Congress choosing to sit out, the contest has turned into a direct clash between the BJP and the SP-led INDIA bloc, making these by-polls a critical test of strength for both sides.

The stage is set for a high-stakes political showdown in Uttar Pradesh, as Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav prepare to go head-to-head in the assembly by-polls scheduled for November 13. With the Congress choosing to sit out, the contest has effectively turned into a direct clash between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the SP-led INDIA bloc, making these by-polls a critical test of strength for both sides.

“The by-polls are about much more than just local issues; they are a litmus test for the broader alliance politics in Uttar Pradesh, leading up to the 2027 assembly elections,” explains Dr. Prashant Kumar, a political analyst. “A strong performance by the SP would elevate Akhilesh Yadav’s stature as the INDIA bloc’s central figure in the state, while a BJP victory would reassert Yogi Adityanath’s hold on the party and his sway over Uttar Pradesh.”

Political stakes and prestige at play

The by-polls come at a crucial time, following the BJP’s relatively disappointing performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, where the SP emerged as the largest party. For Yogi Adityanath, this election represents an opportunity to regain momentum. He has adopted a hands-on approach, making frequent visits to the constituencies, holding strategy sessions with local leaders, and engaging directly with party workers to address internal dissent.

R.K. Mishra, another political observer, notes, “This by-poll is as much a battle for prestige as it is about winning seats. Adityanath has faced criticism from within his ranks after the setbacks in the general elections, and these by-polls are his chance to reaffirm his leadership and showcase his ability to deliver electoral wins.”

Since the Election Commission initiated the preparations for the by-elections in July, Adityanath has been at the forefront, conducting rallies and public meetings across the contested constituencies. His campaign strategy has been bolstered by initiatives like government-organized “rozgar melas” targeting young voters and new welfare schemes aimed at farmers and women.

The nine assembly seats up for grabs include key constituencies like Karhal in Mainpuri, Kundarki in Moradabad, and Ghaziabad Sadar, where both parties are vying for dominance. Of these, Karhal is a stronghold of the SP, and the BJP has deployed significant resources in an attempt to breach this bastion and even the party has fielded Anuj Yadav, a relative of Akhilesh Yadav.

Pradeep Tiwari, a senior journalist notes, involves fielding OBC candidates in four of the nine seats to appeal to the backward class electorate—a move that could shift the dynamics in these traditionally SP-dominated regions.

On the other side, Akhilesh Yadav has taken a more measured, strategic approach. While Adityanath has been visible on the ground, Yadav has focused on micromanaging the campaign from his war room at the party’s Lucknow office. His emphasis has been on strengthening booth-level committees and directing party leaders to concentrate on areas that traditionally support the BJP, aiming to turn the tide.

“Yadav is relying on the PDA formula—backwards, Dalits, and minorities—that helped the INDIA bloc make gains in the Lok Sabha polls,” says Prof. Anil Singh, a political commentator. “By consolidating his core vote bank, he is aiming to counter the BJP’s high-voltage campaign without getting caught up in its narrative.”

Congress’ absence and alliance dynamics

The Congress’s decision to abstain from contesting most of the seats has further highlighted the evolving power dynamics within the INDIA bloc. By agreeing to let the SP lead the charge in these bypolls, Congress has indirectly reinforced Akhilesh Yadav’s leadership within the alliance, strengthening the SP’s position as the principal challenger to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.

A senior SP leader remarked, “With the Congress stepping back, the INDIA bloc is presenting a united front in Uttar Pradesh, and Akhilesh is firmly at the helm. The SP is ready to roll out its campaign, and once the nominations are finalized, our focus will be on mobilizing our grassroots network.”

The by-polls also feature some crucial battles, including in Karhal, where Yadav’s cousin, Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, has filed his nomination, and Ghaziabad Sadar, where the BJP is keen to reclaim lost ground. Among the nine seats, four were previously held by the SP, three by the BJP, and one each by the Nishad Party and RLD.

Broader implications for 2027

With the bypoll results scheduled for November 23, the outcome is expected to set the tone for the political narrative in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the 2027 assembly elections. As R.K. Mishra aptly sums up, “These by-elections are not just a referendum on the local leadership but a reflection of the larger political mood in the state. It is a test of Akhilesh’s ability to unite the opposition and challenge the BJP, just as it is a chance for Yogi to show that he still commands the trust of the electorate.”

The stakes are high, the competition fierce, and the implications far-reaching. As Uttar Pradesh gears up for this critical political contest, the bypolls are set to offer a preview of the battles yet to come, with both Adityanath and Yadav vying to shape the future of the state’s politics.