The poll dates have been announced and battlelines have been drawn for what will arguably be the most keenly-awaited battle in a state election. With fresh faces and new dynamics at play, the Assembly elections in Maharashtra will be a test for either side of the political divide.
In the five years since the last polls, Maharashtra has seen three chief ministers, four deputy chief ministers, and witnessed the split in two of its strongest regional political powerhouses – the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party. With three parties on each side this time, and a mix of some powerful Independents and smaller parties, there are a variety of factors at play in the polls this time.
Caste Calculus
With more players and a lot at stake, caste battles in Maharashtra will be far more intense and consequential this time around. The agitation over Maratha reservation and a parallel movement by Other Backward Classes to prevent it will perhaps prove to be the biggest influencer in this election.
Marathas form an estimated 28 percent of the state’s population and hold immense sway in the state, particularly in the 46 seats in the Marathwada region. Jarange Patil, a village activist who turned into the poster boy of the Maratha reservation movement in the state, has only seen his support base increase over the past two years. The Maratha quota agitation appeared to have a clear effect in the Lok Sabha elections where the ruling coalition lost seven out of eight seats in Marathwada.
While Patil maintains he has no political ambitions, his ambitions seem to be clear – achieve OBC status for Marathas and ensure defeat for anyone against the cause. ““We will draw up a strategy to ensure we have our say on many fronts. We will field candidates in those constituencies where permutations and combinations work in favour of candidates’ winnability. We will support SC/ST candidates. In some constituencies, we will lend support to candidates who have stood by our cause and ensure the defeat of all those who are against us,” he said recently.
The counter-mobilisation of OBCs against Maratha quota adds another peculiarity to the caste calculations on either side of the political divide. OBCs account for around 50 percent of Maharashtra’s population and thus form the most influential vote base for several parties.
New Battlelines
The Assembly elections this time are also a test of nerves for warring factions of former regional behemoths Shiv Sena and NCP. While Shiv Sena split after parting ways with longtime ally BJP soon after the 2018 elections, similar scenes played out in the NCP a year later as Ajit Pawar rebelled against his uncle and party founder Sharad Pawar and walked out with a significant chunk of MLAs to join the Mahayuti government.
Factions of both parties in the MVA have termed the opposing factions as “traitors” and are confident of repeating the defeat MVA handed to the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha polls. However, the BJP’s surprise win in the Haryana elections has reenergised the NDA cadre and could play spoilsport for the MVA’s plans.
The entry of smaller parties and Independents add another mix that could prove crucial in the coming elections. Apart from Mahayuti and MVA, Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), All India Ettehadul e Muslimeen, a front of farmer leader Raju Shetti and Bachchu Kadu are also likely to be in the fray. In addition, rebels could turn into powerful Independents who might lead to further division of votes. A similar scenario played out in Haryana and proved costly for the Congress.
Freebies and Schemes
Minutes ahead of the Election Commission’s announcement of election schedule, the Maharashtra government announced a toll waiver in what was a string of populist measures announced by the Mahayuti since the upset in Lok Sabha elections. Shocked by the drubbing it received, the Mahayuti rolled out schemes and measures targeted at select vote banks.
Be it money transfer to women, toll waivers at Mumbai entry points, free higher education for girls or over 22 corporations for castes within the OBCs, each announcement was measured for its electoral impact. The “CM Majhi Ladki Bahin” scheme, which envisages depositing Rs 1,500 in the accounts of women below poverty line, has become a key campaign of the Mahayuti. The Maharashtra government is estimated to have announced sops worth Rs 1 lakh crore, which includes around Rs 46,000 crore for its flagship CM Majhi Ladki Bahin scheme.
Other populist measures announced by the government aimed at wooing specific target groups include raising the annual income limit to qualify as a “non-creamy layer” from the existing Rs 8 lakh to Rs 15 lakh, increasing the monthly salary of madrasa teachers from Rs 6,000 to Rs 16,000 (for DEd), and from Rs 8,000 to Rs 18,000 (for BEd) and free electricity to farmers up to for use of agriculture pumps.
Infrastructure, Crime and Corruption
The development plank has been the hallmark of the Narendra Modi administration and will be the ruling government’s key plank going into the elections. These include mega infrastructure projects such as the Atal Setu, Samruddhi Mahamarg, Navi Mumbai Airport, Metro network in Mumbai Metropolitan region, Wadhavan port and Dharavi Redevelopment project.
However, the Opposition has already levelled allegations of irregularities and favouritism in handing over costly lands of Mumbai to contractors and industrialists. The Opposition has also alleged a collapse of law and order in the state citing recent incidents of the rape of two kindergarten girls in Thane and the murder of NCP(AP) leader Baba Siddique. These incidents have shown the government in poor light and pushed it on the backfoot.
The RSS Factor
Having sensed the impact that the absence of the RSS caused in the Lok Sabha elections this time, the BJP has since mended fences with its ideological mentor. The participation of RSS cadre is believed to have given BJP the winning edge when its chips were down.
The RSS has its headquarters based in Nagpur and thus holds considerable sway among the electorate in the state. The RSS has already launched an extensive outreach programme aimed at shaping public opinion in favour of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the state. The RSS is learnt to have formed ‘tolis’ comprising 5-10 workers which have begun ground work through local networks in their respective “mohallas.”
“In these meetings, they do not explicitly endorse the BJP but shape the people’s opinion through intimate discussions around topics of national interest, Hindutva, good governance, development, public welfare and various local issues concerning the society,” PTI quoted a source as saying.
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