Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Why farmers' 'Delhi Chalo' march is keeping political parties on tenterhooks

In Delhi, the AAP government turned down a proposal from the city police to turn Bawana stadium into a temporary jail.

With an eye on the upcoming Lok Sabha polls scheduled to be held between April and May, political parties, including the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), seem to have adopted a cautious approach towards the protesting farmers in Punjab to keep their voter base intact.

Since farmers have started their ‘Delhi Chalo’ protest against the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Centre, demanding a legal guarantee for the minimum support price (MSP) for their produce, AAP has been advocating for a dialogue.

Meanwhile, Punjab’s opposition party Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which is again looking to forge an alliance with the BJP, has suspended its month-long Punjab Bachao Yatra in view of the agitation.

Political observers say the stir has created a Catch-22 situation for the Badal family, which  has to maintain cordial relations with both Centre and the farmers. However, farmers, who comprise a large chunk of the voter base for SAD, have to be kept in confidence.

Meanwhile, the Congress, in an attempt to garner support from farmers across the country, has already announced that it will ensure a legal guarantee of the MSP for crops if the INDIA bloc comes to power after the Lok Sabha 2024 polls.

The next round of talks between the Centre and the protesting farmers will be held on February 18.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when Narendra Modi was elected as Prime Minister for a second consecutive term, the SAD had bagged two seats, while the BJP got two, Congress won eight and AAP got one Lok Sabha seat in the state.

AAP’s soft approach

AAP, which is one of the allies of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc, plans to contest all the 13 seats in the state alone, does not want to send out a wrong signal to farmers who comprise most of its voters in Punjab. Even Punajab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann was present during the first and third round of dialogue between the heads of farmer unions and the Centre.

While criticising the use of drones to fire teargas shells on the farmers at Shambu border, Mann had said he would continue to bat for peace in his state as he didn’t want the youth to face any kind of action from the authorities.

Even before the farmers started their march towards Delhi, the Punjab government had directed the administration not to stop them and ensure their movement to the border. Also, the state government prepared an immediate response to any emergency.

Essential services such as ambulances, mobile toilets, and drinking water tanks have been made available at the protest site.

Mann also attacked his Haryana counterpart Manohar Lal Khattar saying “I urge the Centre to hold talks with farmers and accept their genuine demands. They (Haryana) have created a border. There are as many barbed wires in the borders of Punjab and Haryana as between India and Pakistan.”

In Delhi too, the AAP government turned down a proposal from the city police to turn Bawana stadium into a temporary jail.  The Haryana government has already accused the AAP government of “instigating” farmers. Haryana Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kanwar Pal Gujjar said it was all politics.

“The AAP is not talking about farmers’ rights. Only the BJP is doing that,” he said.

Roadblock for SAD-BJP alliance

Apart from expressing its solidarity with the farmers, the SAD declared that it would take a call on the alliance with the BJP depending on the outcome of the talk between the farmers and Centre.

“Though 75 percent of the top party leaders were of the view that having an alliance with BJP was in the interests of both the parties, citing the farm stir, they said Akali Dal should desist from having an alliance at this stage. All were unanimous not to go ahead with any alliance talks till the concerns of farmers are resolved," one Akali leader told The Indian Express.

Catch LIVE updates of farmers' protest here.

Farmers have always been the core supporters of SAD. In 2020, the SAD broke its alliance with the NDA when the farmers protested the Central government farm laws.

During their alliance, the SAD always contested 10 Lok Sabha seats, while Hoshiarpur, Gurdaspur and Amritsar seats were contested by the BJP. For the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has been eyeing more seats in Punjab.

However, if the farmers’ stir continues, the party bargaining power with the SAD is likely to be impacted.

The BJP recently tied up with Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD to create a base among Jat voters. The Centre recently conferred Bharat Ratna on former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh and agriculturalist MS Swaminathan, posthumously. However, if the farmer protest continues, it might blunt the party’s outreach bid to farmers.