Can 2019 exit polls turn out to be wrong like 2004?

Exit poll results for the 2019 Lok Sabha election, released on May 19, predicted a big win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Most exit polls gave NDA a thumping majority with BJP crossing the half-way mark on its own.

However, some political observers have expressed caution over the numbers suggesting that exit polls have gone wrong in the past. The case in point being opinion and exit polls from the 2004 Lok Sabha polls.

Most leading exit polls had given the incumbent Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government a significant lead over the Congress-led alliance. In fact, the numbers stopped just short of the 272-mark. Meaning, the NDA would have been in position to retain power with the support of one or two non-aligned parties.

The 2004 result has repeatedly been used by many as an example of how opinion and exit polling in India has seen mixed results. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, in April asserted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was not invincible. "Don't forget 2004," she told reporters, reminding of Congress’s victory in 2004 despite most predicting a huge BJP victory under Vajpayee.

Asked by reporters if she thinks Modi is invincible, Sonia Gandhi responded, "Not at all, not at all. Don't forget 2004. In 2004 (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee ji was also invincible but we won," she said, before walking away.

There are several similarities between 2004 and 2019. A strong right-of-centre ruling dispensation seeking reelection amid worries of an economic slowdown even as the governments did their best to project a feelgood factor.

So, will 2019 turn out to be like 2004?

The BJP had fought the 2004 general election campaign on the ‘India Shining’ slogan.

After the election, however, senior BJP leaders including former deputy prime minister LK Advani admitted that “these phrases, though valid in themselves, were inappropriate for our election campaign.”

“By making them verbal icons of our election campaign, we gave our political opponents an opportunity to highlight other aspects of India’s contemporary reality -- poverty and uneven development, unemployment among the youth, problems faced by the farmers -- which questioned our claim,” Advani said.

In 2019, the Modi-led BJP also tried to highlight on overall development and economic optimism in its campaign.

Similar to 2004, the Opposition continues to remain fractured. While over 20 opposition parties, in principle, agreed to put up a united fight against the NDA, some of them contested against each other on crucial seats. In 2004, the Left front, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (Secular), among others had stayed away from Congress prior to the polls.

Yet, there remain several differences between 2004 and 2019.

The BJP today is standing at a much higher voter base. BJP’s vote share in 2014 was 31.3 percent. In 1999, BJP’s vote share was 23.8 percent.

Another major factor is that the BJP's organisational presence has swelled in many states. The party is confident of making inroads into Odisha, West Bengal and hopeful of repeating its 2014 performance in the Northeast.

The saffron party seems to have strategically spent more resources in these eastern states to offset losses it could make in the north. This was not the case in 2014.

Another factor that was missing in 2004 was national security as a core election issue. In 2019, the BJP virtually ran its entire campaign on the issue of national security and highlighted the Balakot airstrikes as a counter-terrorism measure.

Overall, while it may be tempting to draw parallels between 2004 and 2019, it may not be a straight comparison.

Lok Sabha polls: For latest updates, analysis and opinions, click here