Late rain reduces monsoon deficit in northern plains but damages crops

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While they lowered temperatures and reduced the rain deficit in the northern plains, the late monsoon spells in September and October also unleashed misery on farmers during harvest time, besides triggering a third wave of floods in Assam.

One of the worst-affected states was Uttar Pradesh, which first faced a rain deficit in the peak monsoon period from June to August and then suddenly suffered a glut in September and October, towards the fag end of the monsoon.

In Assam, heavy rain in large parts of the state triggered another wave of floods. Heavy rainfall in neighbouring Arunachal Pradesh also fed the swollen rivers in Assam. More than 50,000 people were displaced in nine districts, the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) bulletin said. A crop area of 3,782.18 hectares was affected in Assam.

READY CROPS DAMAGED

According to farmers in Uttar Pradesh, the dry conditions from June to August first affected sowing and then, the late rains in September and October damaged crops such as paddy, which was ready for harvesting, as well as sugarcane, mustard, potatoes and vegetables.

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Amit Singh, a farmer’s representative from Muzaffarnagar in western UP, said the farming community was facing one blow after another not only in UP but across the northern plains.

Singh said the extreme heat wave in March and April damaged wheat crops in many areas and now the erratic monsoon had come as a double whammy. Then there are other issues such as the rising prices of pesticides, which add to the burden, he said.

"The late rain had delayed sowing and when we were ready to harvest, the heavy rain damaged the crops to a great extent," Singh told Moneycontrol over the phone. His concerns were shared by Pawan Dubey, another farmer from UP.

Rice and mustard crops were affected across West UP, Singh said, adding that production of rice and other crops might take a hit.

Vegetable cultivation was also affected by the heavy showers. In Delhi’s wholesale markets, supply of fresh vegetables took a hit, leading to a slight rise in prices, said Satyadev Prasad Gupta, former chairman of the Agricultural Produce Market Committee in Ghazipur.

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"Crops have been damaged because of the late rain and there is a shortage of fresh stock. Onion prices may also rise as 50 percent of the new crops have been damaged in many areas and the old stocks won’t last for long," Gupta warned.

The situation will remain more or less the same till about November as the new stocks will take at least a month to arrive, he said, adding there has already been a Rs 5 hike in onion prices in the wholesale markets.

The rains will impact the paddy and millet crops in West UP and delay mustard and potato sowing as the monsoon generally withdraws in west UP by this time, Group Captain SN Mishra, an independent climate change expert, said.

But on the brighter side, from east UP onwards, except for some flooding, the rainfall will help the delayed paddy crop and sowing of the rabi crop as the rain will keep the soil moisture intact, Mishra said.

LATE RAIN, ERRATIC MONSOON

This year, the rains have been pretty erratic across India. The pre-monsoon period saw a rain glut across the northeast, triggering landslides and floods. In May, the northern plains also recorded normal to excess rain.

The entry of the monsoon in June was kind of a hide-and-seek game, with Assam, Meghalaya and Sikkim recording more than normal rain but most of the other states left high and dry.

From July, the tables turned, with south, west and central India getting deluged but the northeast recording a deficit. The Indo-Gangetic plains comprising UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, on the other hand, faced a continuous deficit from June to August, delaying the sowing season.

A long wet spell from September 14 to 25 helped the northern states reduce the deficit. Another wet spell from October 8 further reduced the gap but wreaked havoc in the fields.

In fact, in the week from October 6 to 10, Uttar Pradesh recorded 138.9 mm of rain against a normal of 9.8 mm, a 1,317 percent excess, India Meteorological Department (IMD) data shows.

At least 67 of UP’s 75 districts have recorded excess rainfall since October 1, according to the IMD.

Haryana was next with 35.9 mm, against a normal of 2.6 mm rain in the same period, a 1,281 per cent surplus.

Uttrakhand recorded 1,040 percent surplus rain, Rajasthan 814 percent, Madhya Pradesh 622 percent, Punjab 232 percent, Maharashtra 172 percent, Assam 128 percent and Arunachal 287 percent surplus rain.

A rainfall difference ranging from -99 percent to -60 percent of the season’s average is considered ‘large deficient’ in MET parlance; -59 to -20 is ‘deficient’ and -19 to +19 is normal. ‘Excess’ ranges from + 20 percent to + 59 percent; and anything above 60 percent or more is termed ‘large excess’.

NOT UNUSUAL

The interaction of the monsoon system with a westerly disturbance and a cyclonic circulation resulted in incessant rainfall in parts of northwest India between October 6 and 11, explained weather experts.

Parts of Madhya Pradesh, UP and Uttarakhand received incessant rainfall from October 5 and Delhi from October 7 for three days as the system got anchored at the Delhi longitude, Mishra, a former senior weather forecasting official at the ministry of defence and the Indian Air Force, said.

"Rainfall has, though, stopped and in the next few days, the monsoon will withdraw from UP, Bihar, MP, Maharashtra and Jharkhand and the water will quickly recede from the flooded fields," Mishra said.

Mishra said such rain during this time of the year is not completely unusual, a fact seconded by IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

Heavy rain in October is not frequent but not uncommon either, Mohapatra said, adding that this fresh spell was predicted in advance.

"Last year also, there was heavy rain in October and November; 55 cm of rain was reported in one day in Uttarakhand last year," the IMD director general told Moneycontrol.

This spell damaged crops in many parts but will reduce the deficit in the northern plains to a large extent, Mohapatra said.

FARMERS WANT FINANCIAL AID

Farmers across states are demanding a financial package from the government to tide over the crisis triggered by crop losses because of heavy rains. They say that while the late rain will help the crops that were sown late, it has damaged ripe crops ready for harvest.

"Farmers are under huge stress and the crop losses have doubled their problems. Farming is already getting more cost-intensive. They need immediate financial help," said Shekhar Dixit, president of the Rashtriya Kisan Manch, a farmers’ organisation based in Uttar Pradesh.

Dixit said the changing monsoon cycle has tripled farmers’ problems, adding that such issues and mounting losses could trigger suicides. He warned that such crop damage could also lead to a food grain shortage.

"Helping farmers makes much more economic sense than importing food grains. The government should help farmers the same way they bail out capitalists. After all, the agro community has a role to play in the country’s GDP," Dixit said.

States such as Maharashtra have already started disbursing financial assistance to affected farmers while UP, Punjab, Haryana and others have started surveys to assess the damage.

In Bihar, as many as 937 panchayats in 11 districts have been declared drought-hit.

The news agency UNI reported that nine farmers have committed suicide in Maharashtra’s Vidarbha region in the last three days over financial problems triggered by crop losses.

This year, the erratic rain in the northern plains and other parts of the rice belt led to delayed sowing of the kharif crop. Though the crop area was later covered to a large extent, it was still lower compared to last year.

The total area sown pan-India this year was 1,102.79 lakh hectares (Lha) as on September 30, compared to 1,112.19 Lha in 2021, a decrease of 9 Lha, according to Union agriculture ministry data.

Rice was sown over an area of 402.88 Lha in 2022 against 423.4 Lha last year. Rice coverage was lower in UP, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Bihar, Assam, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab, among other states. Pulses coverage this year stood at 133.69 Lha compared to 139.29 Lha last year.

Coarse cereal coverage was, however, up -- 183.89 Lha this year against 175.15 Lha last year, an increase of 8.75 Lha. This was because many farmers cultivating rice shifted to coarse cereals at the last moment. There was also an increase in cotton acreage – 127.5 Lha this year against 118.50 Lha in 2021.

CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERNS

Climate change and monsoon variability are threatening food security, as this year itself, a reduction in yield was seen in the wheat crop due to an early heat wave, cautioned Mishra.

"A drought-like situation in the Indo-Gangetic plains during peak monsoon time also led to a reduction in paddy acreage. This could even impact rice yield negatively," Mishra said.

The monsoon by nature has an intrinsic variability to it and climate change is exacerbating intra-seasonal spatiotemporal variability as well as extreme weather episodes. And this makes the prediction of regional distribution of monsoon rainfall more challenging for meteorologists, he said.

Raghu Murtugudde, a professor in the department of atmospheric and oceanic science, University of Maryland, says the monsoon definition has to change.

For instance, La Niña had this effect last year, as well, and the Arctic warm anomalies brought in late-season heavy rain, Murtugudde said.

Winds from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are running into the La Niña pressure pattern down the middle of India. This created a cyclonic circulation on the west coast and dumped a lot of rain. The winds from the east are running up into the Himalayas and creating heavy rains, Murtugudde explained.

Farmer leader Dixit says weather variability has to be taken into account while planning which crop to cultivate at which time.

The soil health management scheme, whose objective is to make agriculture more productive, sustainable and climate-resilient, needs to be implemented properly, said Dixit. And compensation for crop losses has to be disbursed speedily or else farmers will be forced to hit the streets again, he cautioned.