India's winter expected to be warmer, threatening wheat yields

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpea are planted from October to December and need cold weather during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

India is likely to see above-average temperatures during the winter season, the state-run weather office said on Monday, raising concerns about the yields of crops such as wheat and rapeseed.

India is expected to experience above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures from December to February, with fewer "cold wave days expected", the India Meteorological Department said in a statement.

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpea are planted from October to December and need cold weather during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

Lower production could force the world's biggest wheat producer after China to import the staple to ensure affordable supplies for its 1.4 billion people, and also to increase imports of pulses and edible oils.

So far, New Delhi has resisted calls for wheat imports despite record-high prices, aiming to avoid upsetting farmers.

In the past few years, it has become clear that temperature matters far more than other factors when it comes to wheat yields, said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trade house.

Hot and unseasonably warm weather hit India's wheat output in 2022 and 2023, leading to a sharp drawdown in state reserves.

Wheat prices hit a record 32,000 rupees per metric ton in Delhi last week, up from 25,000 rupees in April and far above the government-fixed minimum support price of 22,750 rupees for last season's crop.

To bring down prices by boosting supplies, India plans to sell 2.5 million metric tons of wheat from its state reserves to bulk consumers such as flour millers and biscuit makers.