Farmers' protest: INDIA sees chance to reap dividends, BJP on wait-and-watch mode

The Samyukta Kisan Morcha (Non-Political) and the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha are spearheading the “Delhi Chalo” agitation.

Troubled by repeated rifts in its core, the Opposition INDIA bloc sees the farmers' protest as a chance to reap dividend to take on the BJP in the Lok  Sabha elections.

“Modi, who 'cultivates lies' day and night, has only cheated the farmers in the last 10 years. By promising to double the income, he also made the farmers yearn for the MSP (minimum support price). Due to inflation, farmers' debts increased by 60 percent due to not getting fair prices for their crops. As a result, about 30 farmers lose their lives every day,” Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said on February 14.

Farmers from Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana began their march towards Delhi on February 13, demanding a law guaranteeing the minimum support price for their produce. While the authorities tightened security and cracked the whip, 200 farmer unions staged demonstrations and marched on foot or in tractors to Delhi.

Almost three years ago, the farmers held a massive protest that lasted for months and the Centre had to repeal the three farm laws. With the Lok Sabha polls approaching, Moneycontrol tries explore if and how the 'Delhi Chalo 2.0' march of the farmers may impact both the INDIA bloc and the BJP-led NDA in power.

BJP in Hindi heartland

The protesting farmers mostly belong to Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana. These three states comprise a major part of the Hundi heartland. In recent Assembly elections, the BJP had a sweeping victory in the heartland states, paving the way for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reiterate his “24 mein 400 paar” call at a rally in Jhabua, Madhya Pradesh.

The BJP can not ignore the farmers’ protest. All these three states are crucial to the Lok Sabha polls. While Punjab sends 13 members to the Upper House, UP sends 80 and Haryana 10.

For the BJP, Punjab may not be an easy deal as INDIA bloc member Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal has announced his decision to go it alone in the Congress-ruled state. According to the Election Commission data, the BJP had a vote share of 9.73 percent in the state in 2019 and won just two seats. The party may have hoped to win due to the recent rifts in the INDIA bloc. But its reunion with Shiromani Akali Dal is still not confirmed.

In Haryana, the BJP had won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. However, a significant number of farmers are part of both the 2020 and 2024 protests. Though UP farmers are also part of the Delhi Chalo 2.0 march, the BJP had won 72 seats in 2014 and 62 in 2019 general elections. The party has a considerable strong presence in the state. The recent inauguration of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya may also help it garner enough support to win in Uttar Pradesh.

Farmers from Tamil Nadu have also backed the protest. This one state where the BJP is yet to make some headroom. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA had won only one seat from Tamil Nadu.

Ammo to INDIA bloc  

After the back-to-back exits by Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) and the RLD, the INDIA bloc is dealing with Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal who have announced their plans to contest elections alone. The farmers’ protest may be the last chance for the Opposition squad to make an impact on the 97 crore voters as well as on the Hindi heartland.

The Congress is in power in Karnataka and Telangana and is an alliance partner of the DMK in Tamil Nadu. But it does not have a strong presence in the three states that headlined the farmers' protest. It was defeated by the AAP in Punjab in the 2022 Assembly polls and won eight out of the 13 seats in the 2019 state assembly polls. In Haryana, the Congress drew a blank in the last general elections.

In UP, the party had won just one seat in the last general elections. The 2022 state polls were held just a few months after the farmers’ protest and the Congress had won only two seats.

In a bid to make the best out of the agitation, Rahul Gandhi cut short his Bhahart Jodo Nyay Yatra and moved back to Delhi with the promise to bring in the MSP law for crops if the INDIA bloc is voted to power in the Lok Sabha polls.